Historian Allan Lichtman, who uses his model of 13 criteria to predict the winner of presidential elections by Labor Day of the presidential election years, says it is a mistake to Democrats to dump Biden because incumbency is one of the 13 criteria. Even though there is a poll that says otherwise, Trump would beat up Kamala Harris more than Joe Biden.
So how does litchman explain incumbent DJT getting fewer ballots counted than Brandon in 2020?