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Ukraine ping

Trump slaughtered hundreds of Russian mercs over a piece of Syrian wasteland. He could have ordered an American retreat or simply let Americans be killed, as Obama and Biden both did.

Unlike Syria, Ukraine isn’t just valuable in itself, for its people and natural resources, it’s also a traditional way station for Russian invasions of Europe. What Trump will do on Ukraine only he knows, but past sweet nothings to Putin accompanied by sanctions or worse on Russia are one reason to view with skepticism the idea he’ll be soft on Russia.

For one thing, just on prestige alone, if Putin conquers Ukraine on Trump’s watch, his historical stature rises above Trump’s. Does Trump want to be Hertz, #1, or Avis, an also-ran? His first term suggests Hertz. His urging Europe to spend more on defense is clearly aimed at warding off Russia, as is his reactivation of V Corps and placing it in Poland, in preparation for the stationing of 50K GIs hundreds of miles closer to Russia.

Thanks Zhang Fei.

“What Trump will do on Ukraine only he knows”

During his Administration, he also lifted the Obama/Biden ban on lethal aid to Ukraine, and started arming them with Javelin anti-tank missiles, among others.

Unlike Syria, Ukraine isn’t just valuable in itself, for its people and natural resources, it’s also a traditional way station for Russian invasions of Europe. What Trump will do on Ukraine only he knows, but past sweet nothings to Putin accompanied by sanctions or worse on Russia are one reason to view with skepticism the idea he’ll be soft on Russia.

Former NSC Zbigniew Brzezinski stated that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire. Everyone who knows the history of the region understands that this war is about how much of Ukraine will be permitted to divorce itself from Russian and join the West, likely in a closer reunion with Poland.

For one thing, just on prestige alone, if Putin conquers Ukraine on Trump’s watch, his historical stature rises above Trump’s. Does Trump want to be Hertz, #1, or Avis, an also-ran? His first term suggests Hertz. His urging Europe to spend more on defense is clearly aimed at warding off Russia, as is his reactivation of V Corps and placing it in Poland, in preparation for the stationing of 50K GIs hundreds of miles closer to Russia.

The war is unpopular politically in the U.S., and Trump understands that. However, that doesn't mean that Trump will squander the historic opportunity to weaken Russia's geopolitical position in Ukraine and Belarus. The entire Russian state could collapse as it did in WWI after initially gaining territory in Habsburg Galicia. Cleaving off Kaliningrad into an independent state would enhance security in Europe and push Russia further away from NATO and Europe. While the cost of U.S. support for Ukraine makes headlines, it is mostly obsolete military equipment. Shipping it to Ukraine is likely cheaper than paying to decommission it. I suspect that most of the added cost is for sweet heart contracts for the right connected people in the process. That should be audited to eliminate any unwarranted price increases.