Overall, the last 10 years have had fewer than average hurricanes.
Yes, that is the Inconvienent Truth about hurricanes/Typhoons.
There have been much less than average for the last twenty years.
HOWEVER, I still would not want to be on Jamaica. There are still a lot of places in the Caribbean that have not been repaired since hurricane Maria hit the islands as a category 5 in 2017.
Well what about ghost ‘themicanes’. We don’t know about those. 😁👍
Hurricanes don’t occur just because it is hot, nor do they become strongly powerful just because it is hot. They occur under very specific conditions with fairly specific crosswinds - too slow and they don’t pick up the spin and carry the vortex to where more energy can be collected, and too fast and they get disrupted. Temperature *differential* is what makes them powerful.
The past two years there has been quite dramatic atmospheric warming. It has warmed so fast, that it completely breaks the models, and is clearly not caused by CO2-based effects.
Don’t get caught up in dismissing the current atmospheric warming just because the hyenas have been screeching about it hysterically the previous few decades. The current signal is quite distinct.
What caused it? Enormous amounts of water vapor blasted into the upper atmosphere by a volcano which erupted at just the right depth so as to not get smothered by the ocean, nor just splay out in the normal fashion. Instead it essentially formed a shotgun blast of water into the upper atmosphere (up to 53km in altitude), where it really doesn’t have any other way to get there, and so it “shouldn’t” be there.
Estimates are that we are going to have a 5-8 period with a lot of warming, and observations show that we have had atmospheric warming the past two years *completely* out of line with the variability on the general warming trend we have seen over the past several decades. The warming trend is far too *large* to be from CO2, or man-kinds actions.
https://www.nasa.gov/earth/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/
Within this longer video, by a science blogger Astrum, is a video of some men on a beach 35 miles away when the shock wave arrives, sounding like a very loud rifle shot.
https://youtu.be/sZZVVwqZ0rs?t=249
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmTqphI0ods