I am computer illiterate but I still think that all the handwringing about AI will turn out like the fears of the end of society as we knew it during the Y2K scare.
As a famous mathematician once wrote, computational ability is not mind power.
However, AI might turn out to be an evil ouija board where a mind is in fact controlling it.
AI may not be a real learning machine. However, most jobs are based on checklists of some kind. It only needs the ability to check of lists to replace most jobs.
Because it starts from the bottom, it becomes useful if it can check off between two options. If it can check off three options, it can do 8 options. If it can check off four options, it can do 16 options.
In an absolute, it may not be able to replace humanity, but it may be able to replace humanity in all jobs where you can do it if you have average intelligence. Since it improve by generations each couple of years, it doesn’t take long to go from antlike intelligence to a cat level to a gorilla level to human.
“However, AI might turn out to be an evil ouija board where a mind is in fact controlling it.”
I disagree with your first paragraph but this one is spot-on.