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To: SeekAndFind

Probably closer to $10bln. Their numbers are completely made up.


7 posted on 06/21/2024 10:30:14 AM PDT by HYPOCRACY (Brandon's pronouns: Xi/Hur)
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To: HYPOCRACY

RE: Probably closer to $10bln.

Billion with a B? You can’t be serious.


11 posted on 06/21/2024 10:32:45 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: HYPOCRACY

[Probably closer to $10bln. Their numbers are completely made up.]


If you use auto sales as a proxy, I think the $18t estimate is reasonable.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-2023-vehicle-sales-rise-12-industry-association-2024-01-11/#:~:text=BEIJING%2C%20Jan%2011%20(Reuters),on%20the%20year%2C%20CAAM%20said.
https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-mexico-by-month-2023#:~:text=In%202023%2C%20Mexican%20light%20vehicle,had%20increased%2011.5%25%20from%202022.

China has 1.4b people to Mexico’s 122m, about 11x. Mexico’s GDP is $1.4t. Chinese car sales are over 20x Mexico’s. It’s not a big stretch to think China’s GDP is at least 11x Mexico’s.

Another indicator is migrant flows. Per capita, despite serious economic ructions, the Chinese migrant flow into the US is 1/10 Mexico’s. But China’s population is 11x Mexico’s. In other words, per capita, the Chinese illegal alien flow into the US is under 1% of Mexico’s. This suggests that as bad as things are in China, they’re perhaps no worse off than in Mexico,

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-encounters-at-the-us-mexico-border-hit-a-record-high-at-the-end-of-2023/

In other words, Chinese GDP per capita is no lower than Mexico’s, and with 11x the population, nominal GDP is at least 11x Mexico’s number of $1.4T, meaning an $18T estimate for China might be high, but $10T is perhaps low.


19 posted on 06/21/2024 11:01:30 AM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room)
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