I don’t think the French troops would ever see the battlefield. The Russians can reach out and touch them anywhere in Ukraine once they’ve crossed the border. I think that’s where they’d be attacked.
Exactly. And it’s a bad corner for them. Anything they do to attack Russia, inside Russia, opens up France itself for direct attacks. Article V doesn’t kick in because France would have launched the attack that got them hit back.
And for extra fun, fight now the new Government in Niger is tearing up the post colonial agreements with France and a few other African former French colonies are doing the same. That will hurt France badly economically.
Between Farmer revolts, Islamists and African migrants raising hell across the country, and the loss of it’s Uranium supply in Niger and loss of tribute/taxes from it’s former colonies, France cannot support a war in Ukraine.
Yes, to this day, former French colonies are forced by “end of colonialism” treaties to pay hefty reparations taxes to France annually. The logic was that those former colonies owe them for the roads, dams, buildings, railroads etc that France built when they were in charge. France also has legal first right to natural resource exploitation, military associations, new projects in those nations etc. The African colonies are abrogating those treaties and say that time is ending.
France either takes a huge hit, or uses force in Africa.
Lots of moving parts out there. France may send a few technicians to Ukraine, but they won’t commit front line troops in any meaningful way.