When Russia is conventionally destroying NATO in Ukraine, why on earth would they launch a tactical nuke at Poland? That makes no sense whatsoever. Should NATO make the cataclysmically insane escalation of deploying enough NATO manpower and assets to actually defeat Russia in Ukraine, everything changes. The Russians have unequivocally assured us for twenty years that they will stop at nothing to preclude NATO being established in Ukraine. Again, it has been made crystal clear that half the world will be nuked before that will be allowed to happen. These warnings are NOT directed to Warsaw. The U.S. would be the target, knowing full well a total nuclear exchange would ensue. Ukraine for the U.S. is a tactical mission to weaken Russia. NATO member Ukraine is a strategic existential threat to Russia.
Talk of a “limited nuclear war” is the most reckless madness the world has ever seen. Up until the Cuban Missile Crisis the insanity of anyone “winning” WWIII was debatable. After coming so close to Armageddon in the CMC the idea of such insane theories was made the butt of dark comedies. That is until two years ago. Once the nuclear threshold is breached there is no turning back as each side scrambles to use everything before they lose them in the next escalation.
Trying to delineate between limited and total nuclear war is fool’s mission.
“why on earth would they launch a tactical nuke at Poland? That makes no sense whatsoever”
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That’s not how Medvedev see’s it:
https://tass.com/politics/1641467
https://tass.com/politics/1700959