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VIDEO - Russian economics

RUSSIA - Turkey & India Stop Buying Russian Oil as USA Increases Crackdown on Sanctions
Joe Blogs
352K subscribers
3-7-2024 11:00 a.m. EST
26:14 Minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5iSmSbLa40

Following the invasion of Ukraine Russia replaced lost oil sales with increased sales to both INDIA & Turkey. By May 2023 India was buying over 2.2 MILLION Barrels Per Day which made it Russia’s largest buyer and meant India was purchasing half of Russia’s exports.

In addition to this Turkey has taken a deliberately NEUTRAL stance over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has significantly increased the amount of trade it is doing with Russia. However over the past few months the USA has ramped up the POLICING of the sanctions against Russia and this has now resulted in a FALL in the level of trade that both Turkey and India are doing with Russia.

In this video I provide more details of the current situation, discuss the problems that Russia is now facing and the impact on the Russian Economy.

Chapters:
0:00 Intro
2:55 TURKEY
4:31 DORTYOL PORT
8:57 TURKISH SANCTIONS
13:25 RUSSIAN OIL
17:12 RUSSIAN TAXES
20:15 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION

This data is from the Ukraine MOD.
The Russian MOD does similar reports, but with much less attention to detail and care.
Granted that the data is hardly neutral.

Of this, I find the personnel casualty estimates the least convincing. With the best will in the world this is extremely hard to do without introducing an upward bias. This is much like Vietnam war era US estimates of enemy KIA, which have been thoroughly savaged over the last fifty years. Worse, probably, as only a small proportion of the bodies counted could possibly have been recovered, much less than the US could in Vietnam. I would completely discount that. It can only be reconciled after the war, and even then only given certain political circumstances.

Equipment counts are better. The Ukraine MOD provides photos/videos of many of these reports but by no means all. Oryx uses the material they get, mainly from the Ukraine or Russian MOD these days, as there is vastly less civilian and unofficial military video around. OPSEC has improved all around. With this Oryx continues to do their own counts. Granted, as Oryx says, this is necessarily an undercount as there will never be video of every incident, and Oryx takes longer to update so it will always be behind. Personally I figure the real number falls between the Ukrainian MOD claims and Oryx.

Given that, the count of losses misses the damaged units and operational/mechanical equipment breakdowns which in previous wars have been extremely high during combat operations. And it misses equipment inventory stuck in the maintenance and repair loop (transit, in-process, pending parts, cannibalization etc) which is likely to be huge.

In certain categories, ships, aircraft and missiles, I think the Ukraine MOD has been very accurate.