[Eccl 10:2]

But beware the NVDA earnings/guidance Wednesday after the bell!

And if 424 support fails, all bets are off short term.

[Eccl 10:2]

Please ping me if you want to be added to the list, but…

NOTE: For discussion purposes only. I am not any sort of financial or investment professional, and I take no responsibility for any actions taken by you, nor does FreeRepublic.com.

[Skywise]

I don’t think there’s anything NVDA could announce short of a blow out quarter that would turn this thing around.

Even then I don’t think the market would believe it…

[glorgau]

The chart people getting out their colored pencils and consulting vedic astrology for future directions of the market...

[ArcadeQuarters]

As a buy and holder I’m glad my blood pressure is not tied to the charts.

[calljack]

i have several spy puts and not much else. all my other option plays are 2025 and 2026, so not tremendously worried week to week. short term bear, long term bull.

[aquila48]

[Justa]

Is QT still occurring? The bond market seems to implicate it is. If so, considering current economic activity (unexpectedly) the equities may be ahead of themselves a bit. So I’ve gone to cash hopefully, to sidestep the unpleasantries.

[Political Junkie Too]

I was following technical analysis on IBD last year, but backed away from it this year.

Personally, I think that technical analysis is more of a gauge of investor psychology than anything else. My problem last year was that I didn't trust the government to either:

1. Accurately report monthly numbers
2. Prop up the metrics somehow through unusual policy

I think #1 is borne out by the trend of downward revisions that follow in the months after headlines that cause spikes in the market.

I think #2 is borne out by the rise in government jobs over private sector jobs.

I've been more of a leading indicator trend analyzer. I don't want to buy the dips of whipsaws, I want to find the deep recession and then get in at the bottom and get out at the top. I fully expected the bear-market recession to hit last year, so I was out of the equity market and into money markets for the whole of 2023.

I gave up the exuberant gains of 2023 for the security of MM returns (plus bond ETFs), expecting a market crash as inflation peaked, banks began to fail, and people couldn't afford new homes. As a recent retiree, my focus was on capital preservation going into the Biden administration.

In August of 2023, my leading indicator model was approaching bear-market recession triggers, but then retreated. It is now turning back towards the trigger level.

Now we are entering 2024 and the heart of the election cycle when the current administration will do everything it can to either prop up the markets even more or poison pill the economy for Donald Trump. I still don't want to re-enter the equity market at this time, as I believe the bear-market crash is finally looming. The next few months of leading indicators will show me more.

-PJ

[citizen]

What is the QQQ and why should people on this forum care?

(It’s getting old...)