It’s been breaking 52 week highs for at least a month. Definitely not a good time to buy
Buy high, sell low has been my motto through the years.
“It’s been breaking 52 week highs for at least a month. Definitely not a good time to buy”
##############
One could argue, though, that this was just an interim selloff. The moving average ribbon did not change, and we are still well above the 200 day moving average.
Or is it ?
Depends on where you see the market going from here.
I have been running a short side sqqq/tqqq swing trade since NDX was about 14000. I’ve had my tail twisted a few times looking at “technicals”. I have come to really believe that it's just a reflection of the dollar.
With 10 trillion $s in short term debt to reissue along with 2 trillion new debt over the next year hitting the bond market.... the dollar will be diluted .
This means it will take more dollars to buy the value of real things ... even the market. Asset inflation.
Now I could be wrong ... I often am, but I have capitulated.
I swing a long side tqqq/sqqq and am buying mining now.
QQQ is a gentle way to ride the up market, but if the bear starts to eat or the black swan flies... watch out.
All these $$ end up some where ... a lot in the markets.
Every kid with a smart phone is day trading on the margins.
The Saudis are dumping dollars in to every thing that ticks.
More pension fund $$ are flowing in, money market , foreign
reserves .... it's a flood.
I think it would take a real black swan to dent the market.
NDX is about 200 pts off its high today .... not much of a correction , more like a stop loss raid.
War didn't stop the run.
Is there anything that will ?
Excuse my ramblings ... but I guess since I have capitulated and thrown out any metrics of rational investment, the market can go ahead and tank now. (I bet we see ndx 20000 within 30 days... barring the black swan)
Except for all the people who bought in the last month, it worked pretty good for them