Anyone here doubt SpaceX could do it pretty easily if they cared to?
—
Yes I do; SpaceX is very far behind the initial projections with the current NASA Artemis-StarShip plans. As it stands now, China has a very good chance of getting to the moon first.
Further, the whole Artemis plan is very expensive and likely unworkable in practice. It will take some 20 launches to get 4 guys to the moon. That’s after they get the Lunar Orbiter Module up and working.
StarShip has no crew escape-on-descent. Only on ascent. Unnecessary safety risk. Even the Apollo Lunar Module had this crew safety feature.
With luck, StarShip 3 will make it to orbit next month, and hopefully they will be able to prove the refueling concept this year as well. Without that, the whole Artemis mission fails.
SpaceX’s Boca Chica site is in jeopardy from environmental lawsuits. If the envirowackos’ case (Sierra Club) succeeds they will have to close the site. This will take many months or years to get through the courts, and the site can still operate, if they get a stay of execution against the various agencies that grant permits (and does not violate prior agreements), while the case goes on.
“China has a very good chance of getting to the moon first.”
The biggest advantage they have is they won’t care if some astronauts die in failed attempts.
The US will freak out if that happens to their astronauts.