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I can't put everything in one update. It would be way too long. Also, I could do long posts on any one of these stories but then your eyes would glaze over harder than a Krispy Kreme doughnut.
Item One:
There are rumors swirling through the PRC that Xi JinPooh has pancreatic cancer. There is evidence that Xi has lost considerable weight over the past 90 days or so. I have no direct evidence whether the rumor is true or not. There is some evidence that people mentioning this on Chinese social media have been cancelled and, in at least one case, arrested.
Item Two:
Faithful readers will remember that last fall I strongly recommended that anyone with investment exposure to China and Chinese stocks to to get rid of that exposure for whatever you could get for them. It appears that my advice was prescient.
Over the past two months, equities on the Hang Seng (Hong Kong), Shanghai, and Beijing stock markets have taken a beating. Yesterday the Shanghai market closed at a five year low. Various other markets throughout China closed down between 2.3% and 8.5% for the week. The rout on Friday was only stopped by the intervention of various state-owned investment funds. Since 2021, almost $6.5 TRILLION dollars US in market capitalization value have been wiped off the Chinese markets.
Item Three:
The China real estate bubble continues to unwind with EverGrand, the second largest developer in the PRC ordered by a Hong Kong court to liquidate. Now come heavy rumors that Country Garden, the largest developer in China is liquidating as it sells off high quality foreign assets.
Real estate sales were down 6.5% nationwide for 2023. December sales were down 17.5% year-on-year. They fell 34% year-on-year in January of this year.
This is particularly worrying to the average Chinese person as roughly 70% of private wealth in China is tied up in real estate.
Item Four:
There is no end in sight for China's economic down turn. Unemployment remains high and roughly 1/3 of all Chinese white-collar workers saw pay cuts in 2023. They are the lucky ones. Pay arrears in private companies seem to be growing and spreading to municipal and provincial government workers. When the government workers stop getting paid, things will get ugly.
Item Five:
This week the Foreign minister and Defense Minister of New Zealand traveled to Canberra for talks with Australian and United States defense officials. They expressed a keen desire to join the non-nuclear part of AukUS, a bilateral pact between the US and Australia. This is the pact that will allow Australia to build US designed nuclear submarines, a variant of the Virginia-class submarines, in Australia under US supervision.
This is worrying for the PRC as NZ has generally been more open to dealing with the PRC. AukUS was formed specifically to counter aggressive Chinese expansion in the western Pacific.
WWG1WGA
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)