You are correct, I wouldn’t count a stolen election, stock market collapse, assassination, or a nuclear attack as Black Swans because they are predictable with this administration. From the Biden’s administration perspective, something happening good for the US would be a Black Swan event.
In UFO land some of the experts are claiming that .gov has figured out how to do some disclosure and cover their sorry rear ends at the same time.
The scenario: Stage a SWAT like raid at a military industrial contractor.
Claim that the contractor had unauthorized possession of alien craft and bodies.
Release bits and pieces and make the contractor executives the scapegoat.
If it happens—you heard it here first.