Early and mid-stage PPI lead PPI. PPI leads CPI. Early and mid-stage PPI went parabolic in late 2020 and early/mid 2021, and it was obviously that was going to get into inflation, and it did. Early and mid-stage PPI are both down quite a bit (earlier moreso) and M2 is down 4% over the last year. Owners equiv rent is holding up inflation indexes but when this year’s flat to slightly negative rents show up in the index in a year, plus the recent drop in wholesale auto prices show up in retail, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where deflation is a real risk.
“where deflation is a real risk”
I view deflation as a positive—would love to see it.