“The disparity’s in capacity are laughably obvious,”
And yet, Ukraine has recovered Snake Island, chased much of the Russian warships from Sevastapol, badly damaged or destroyed new Russian military ships in Kersh shipyard, and has made it possible for commercial ships to renew the export of Ukraine grains, iron ore, etc. Not bad for a country with no submarines or much navy.
Then we have reports of devastating attacks on sleeping Russians in their quarters by Ukraine soldiers who have night vision goggles and other small equipment which the Russain or Chechnian soldiers completely lack. Then they use cheap machine guns rather that expensive rockets to mow them down in their beds. Remember what termites do to buildings, and microbes do to the human body. When it comes to final results, Ukraine’s effectiveness with modest cost commercial drones, and other creative fighting are a significant factor not mentioned in your big power research parameters. Then think of the poor Russian soldiers told to ask their women for tampons to plug the bleeding bullet wounds, and forced to buy much of their own military clothes.
Then there is the human factor. Ukraines fighters are motivated. Russian fighters mostly just want to go home and are bitching to their families they are not being rotated or given owed R & R. This SUNDAY there is supposed to be widespread demonstrations by Russian families on behalf of their miserable conscript soldiers. Will be interesting to see how that develops. Small or large crowds? Mild or vicious official responses, etc.?
The Ukraine is losing, despite having night vision goggles. THey keep throwing conscripts into the meat grinder and eventually, they will run out of soldiers to waste in their futile efforts. The Ukraine actually KNOWS it’s losing, but it’s trying to prop up the optics, get more money etc. Yes - and the Ukraine has night vision goggles and support from NATO, which is now being withdrawn.
“Ukraine soldiers who have night vision goggles and other small equipment which the Russain or Chechnian soldiers completely lack.”
The Russians never had much of a night fighting capability. Up through the late 80’s to early 90’s all their tanks had infrared searchlights mounted on them for “night fighting”.
The problem they faced is that their tanks had to close to within knife fighting distance for the IR lights to be effective, while tanks like the Abrams, Leopard, and Challenger could easily destroy them at 4 to 5 times the Russian engagement envelope.