“They know they are, they just won’t admit it.”
The first geologist that theorized that the eastern Washington state scablands were carved out by rapid and huge floods was ridiculed. One of the points of contention was were did all of the water that would have been needed come from?
A US Geologic Survey geologist figured out where all of the water came from. But he waited years and years until he retired to tell anyone (ancient Lake Missoula).
Just driving down the highway through Missoula in the early morning with the shadows the various levels of the lake on the hillsides is obvious once you know what you are looking at.
The lake would dam up with ice, fill with water until there was enough pressure to break the ice dam. Rinse and repeat numerous times. (dozens??)
“The lake would dam up with ice, fill with water until there was enough pressure to break the ice dam. Rinse and repeat numerous times.”
There are a lot of cases where a genius who thinks they know everything never thinks outside the box. Or never rethinks something. They “just know” and discredit others to sell their own book. Except in many many circumstances there are unknown or unforeseen variables and/or influences. Sometimes several variables working together that are never even considered.
Such as your ice dam example. He was discredited because he hit a closed minded firewall. And the one who figured it out had to go into a prudent self defense mode to keep his job. :)