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To: Worldtraveler once upon a time

If you won’t believe the scientific community, then I don’t know what to say. The scientific community really is the only source, because we do the research, gather the data, and do the statistical analyses. No one else does that.

Any CDC articles are based on communications from scientists. State health departments provide information to the CDC.

Looking at my family and friends does not give me population level statistical data. That is the kind of data you need to study in order to understand the incidence of a disorder, not anecdotal stories. Anecdotally, 33% of the people I know who caught Covid developed serious long-term health impairments (intestinal damage requiring surgery) from it, and 66% got long Covid. The other 33% of people I know who caught Covid felt bad for a few days but recovered uneventfully. That 33% was also vaccinated with one booster. This accounts for why his illness was so mild when the other two people I know who had Covid had such serious outcomes. But, as I already said, my personal anecdotal experience is not a substitute for population level data.

So far, the number of people diagnosed with Covid in the US is 108,288,061. Of these cases, 1,174,570 have died. This puts the death rate at 1.085%. Any death rate calculation that is not based on the number of cases is not a real death rate calculation. A lot of calculations (by charlatans) based a pseudo death rate on the total population rather than on the actual cases. This is invalid. Only people who catch Covid can die from it, so death rates can only be calculated based on the number of cases.

By the charlatan method of calculating death rate, you have nothing anly 1-2 people in the US die from rabies every year, giving the charlatan population based death rate of 0.000000606% from rabies. However, the real calculation based on number of cases and number of deaths shows that rabies is 100% fatal.


77 posted on 09/15/2023 9:40:27 PM PDT by exDemMom (Dr. exDemMom, infectious disease and vaccines research specialist.)
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To: exDemMom
--- "the charlatan method of calculating death rate"

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate

"Looking at my family and friends does not give me population level statistical data. That is the kind of data you need to study in order to understand the incidence of a disorder, not anecdotal stories."

That is obfuscation. Individual anecdotes amass from datum to data, such that one could calculate -- looking at your family -- a rate based on that "family" population. Anecdotes are individual datum. "Population level statistical data" are the sum of anecdotes across a larger family -- a population. A state. A nation. The world.

Data are for the U.S.
Number of deaths: 3,464,231
Death rate: 1,043.8 deaths per 100,000 population

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

"1,043.8 deaths per 100,000 population" is equivalent to 1.0438 percent.
"The mortality or death rate is the number of deaths in a population in a period with a particular disease as the underlying cause, such as an annual death rate per 100,000 population."

Source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/nursing-and-health-professions/mortality-rate

"Death rate compares the average annual number of deaths during a year per 1,000 population at midyear; also known as crude death rate."

Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/country-comparison/

--- "Any death rate calculation that is not based on the number of cases is not a real death rate calculation."

This is incorrect. You cite the "case fatailty rate," and call it the "death rate." An "observed case-fatality ratio" is not a "death rate."

You prose indicates your stance: "a pseudo death rate." And yet...

"Mortality is another term for death. A mortality rate is the number of deaths due to a disease divided by the total population."

Source: https://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/chronic/basicstat.htm

I think our conversation is at an end. "Charlatan" and "pseudo" when flying in the face of sourced definitions is not a best strategy to convince.
80 posted on 09/16/2023 4:41:57 AM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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