Relaxing is right!
I’m planning on hibernating till all the flatlanders go home.
Catturd
@catturd2
·
3h
Good morning to everyone - I hope you have a long, relaxing Labor Day weekend.
Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Surges As BLS Revises Payrolls For Every Month In 2023 Sharply Lower
Ahead of today’s payrolls report consensus was already ugly enough, with some of the largest banks expecting a number well below expectations (JPM was at 125K, Citi at 130K, Goldman at 149K vs median consensus of 170K). And while moments ago we got a number which was at least nominally stronger than expected, the report in general was weak enough to suggest that - as we expected - the wheels are finally coming off the US labor market (as this week’s JOLTS report strongly hinted).
Superficially this would have meant an unchanged print from last month when the BLS also reported 187K jobs, however in keeping with recent trends that number was revised - drumroll - lower again, to 157K, meaning that every single monthly payrolls print in 20-23 has been revised lower (see chart below), a 12-sigma probability and virtually impossible unless there was political pressure to massage the data higher initially and then revise it lower when nobody is looking.
Biden is supposed to give a spin speech about how great bidenomics is and all the jobs he’s created. 🤮