Aug 31, 2023<
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for August 31, 2023:
- The Western media is trying to spin Ukrainian gains within the security or “gray zone” ahead of Russia’s first of several defense lines as a “turning point” in the offensive;
- Ukraine’s offensive potential has been exhausted with the West struggling to find arms and ammunition to replace Ukrainian losses;
- The West is even struggling to pull together large numbers of antiquated and inappropriate equipment like the post-WW2 Leopard 1 tank;
- Meanwhile Ukraine continues conducting drone strikes in Russia, achieving questionable PR value and little else;
- A recent Ukrainian drone strike on an airport hosting Il-76 strategic airlift aircraft damaged 2. To put that in context, Russia operates over 100 of these aircraft and has production capacity to build up to 12 annually;
- Ukraine’s sponsors are unable to sustain the conflict “for as long as it takes,” and only for as long as they have arms and ammunition to supply Ukraine in sufficient quantities;
Perhaps.
NOTE: dueling opinions VIDEO COMMENT #4:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/4179308/posts?page=4#4
Russia is running out of missiles | Mark Galeotti
Times Radio
504K subscribers
Aug 31, 2023 7:30 a.m. EDT
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrKLdSsuSpw
“Moscow doesn’t have that much more in its tank.” Russian missile strikes will not last long as “stocks are being depleted at a quicker rate than they can build them” says Mark Galeotti.
Latest satellite images show 2 completely burned out IL76 in Pskov, and 2 more with evident severe damage to the fuselage in the wing root area. One, at least, seems (to me) to be cut in two, behind the wings.
I speculate here; the two burned out seem to have been fuelled (hence the destructive fire), and thus operational, and the other two may not have been fuelled.
There were many other drone attacks that night, its likely we will get more satellite images soon.
Why are these attacks significant? Attrition is always significant. Sustained attacks may cause significant losses over time. To avoid this, Russia is reacting, mainly by pulling back from basing in Western Russia. The Ukrainians have demonstrated a drone design with, it seems, 1000km range.
So it is unsafe now to base aircraft within 1000 km of Ukrainian held territory. This is going to be a severe constraint to Russian AF operations.
As for defense lines, these matter only if the Russians have the troops and equipment to hold them. As the Ukrainians seem to have occupied the MLR (main line of resistance) east of Robotyne, we can expect this will be rolled back westward presently. The next significant line seems to be back at Tokmak.
Yes, the Western sponsors of The Ukraine ARE running out of ammo & out of time.
I'm watching the weather in Russian Federation oblast Zaporozhye for signs of the coming rasputitsa [распу́тица].
https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/UKDE
Boomers today - a lot of rain. That isn't going to help the Ukie cannon fodder.