[Nextrush]

Pushing for military intervention in Niger is likely to lead to an African Civil War since Burkina Faso and Mali are ready to oppose ECOWAS intervention.

They have Russian-Wagner backing.

Algeria is not enthusiastic either and the broader African community wants negotiations on this matter not warfare.

[Wallace T.]

ECOWAS is led by Nigeria, the most populous nation and the economically most viable in the region. They also produce lots of oil. Nigeria has been talking about joining BRICS anyway. If you want to push Nigeria into Chinese and Russian hands, this sort of overreach, if true, will do that. Most African countries are net exporters of commodities. Nigeria, unlike Niger or Burkina Faso, controls a large portion of the energy revenue by partially nationalizing British and American oil companies in the 1970s. Nigeria could abrogate their agreements with Shell, ExxonMobil, etc., and sell the oil directly to Red China. The Chinese are already investing $15 billion into the Nigerian energy sector.

The Chinese have already cut deals with Guinea, a West African coastal nation, to purchase the latter country's bauxite and iron ore. Pushing Nigeria and ECOWAS too hard will result in expanding Chinese and Russian influence beyond the three largely desert countries of Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali into the more populous and prosperous countries like Nigeria, Ivory Coast, and Ghana. In 2030, we may asking, who lost West Africa?