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Very cogent analysis. Makes perfect sense.

A hypothetical just came to me. Being only a hypothetical, I ask for everyone’s patience with my presentation of it. Perhaps the impending disaster you outline would be sufficient to drive the Sino leadership to go outside the boundaries of China itself on a type of “mission of conquest”, so as to take for themselves whatever resources they encounter.

I’m recalling to mind something often cited by much of the evangelical community. They speak of a 200 million man army, and the Tigris and Euphrates being dried up somehow to facilitate the “way for the kings of the east”. Again, just a hypothetical. But it seems that these days, nothing — no matter how bizarre it might appaer — is really “off the table”.

A "Broken China" ping.

If you want on or off the ping list send me a FReepMail.

AFB-XYZ suggested that the CCP might go to war as a means of solving the PRC's problems. This is not so far fetched. Too many wars have gotten started for far flimsier reasons. WW1 comes immediately to mind.

The problem with the idea of the Politburo (Xi) looking outside the PRC on a mission of conquest is multi-fold.

The PRC needs so much different stuff to stay afloat it would have to simultaneously seize ALL of it or fail utterly. Let's take the two most important items, oil and food.

The PRC imports ~67% of its petroleum. ~65% of that is from the Persian Gulf. It is a convenient 7094 nautical miles from Kuwait City to Shanghai. Almost all of that oil travels in foreign flagged tankers. All of that oil must, effectively, pass through one of three straits with a combined width of ~50NM. There are eight nations other than the US, UK, France, and Japan capable of interdicting this supply (India, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, and Australia). None of these countries are friendly enough with the PRC to want to side with them in an offensive war.

Roughly half of the PRC's food imports come from five countries (Br, US, Ca, Au, NZ). ALL food imports would go away in the event of a war.

In the event of a war, the CCP is doomed. Win, lose, or draw, the CCP is doomed. That doesn't mean the Politburo (Xi) won't try, but it won't change the outcome.

The first rule of command is to never issue an order you know WON'T be obeyed. Rule 1A is to never issue an order you aren't sure WILL be obeyed. I'm not sure that the PLA & PLAN will uniformly obey an order to go to war.

WWG1WGA

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)