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To: ransomnote; Disestablishmentarian; I_be_tc; rodguy911; defconw; meyer; outinyellowdogcountry; ...
A "Broken China" ping.


Which graphic do y'all like better? Left, right, or both?
If you want on or off the ping list send me a FReepMail.

OK, I have gotten the question of how I think the CCP will react to the increase in social unrest and what will happen?

First, I think the CCP is doomed and they know it. What I don't know is the form its collapse will take or when it will happen.

I think social unrest is going to increase no matter what the CCP does or doesn't do. The CCP is facing an existential crisis because the PRC is facing a demographic collapse at the same time there is reduced demand for the products the PRC produces. The time of PRC economic growth is over and done for the foreseeable future (the next 40-50 years).

Economic growth results from three things.
1. An increasing population whether organic or by immigration. You can count on the fingers of one hand the number of people wanting to immigrate to the PRC. The birth rate in the PRC is officially down to 1.15 with it only being ~0.70 among the young people in cities. A birthrate of 2.1 is necessary just to maintain your population.
2. An increasing pool of capital. This has not generally been a problem for the PRC. It will rapidly become one as more and more of the population retires. There aren't too many foreigners waiting in line to take up the slack.
3. Better use of both people and capital. This is generally referred to as an increase in productivity.

A collapse in demand at the same time as a fall in exports means that there is nowhere of stuff being made to go so it will stop being made. This leads to mass unemployment. People on a great depression soup line would be singing "Happy days are here again" by comparison.

*****

Now, how will the CCP react. The short answer is that I don't know. I think it will take one of three forms with possibly a combination of 2 & 3.
1. A party coup to replace Xi Jinping. This is probably the least likely. Xi has already gotten rid of everyone who might challenge him for power. I rate a coup at <5% chance. I have heard some vague rumors that there is purge happening within the CCP and the PLA. I have no idea if this is true but I wouldn't discount it too much knowing how paranoid Xi is.
2. Authoritarian violence to quell internal dissent. Whether this takes the form of an external war against Taiwan or the beating of protests/ outright murder of anyone perceived as being a leader of the unrest. I don't rate the chance of war very highly (<5%) as I think the CCP Politburo knows they would lose. Smashing internal dissent? Yep, I think they are quite capable of doing that. Will it have the result they think it will? I don't think so.
3. A financial crisis that brings down the whole house of Cards. Now THAT would be biblical.

I think that one of the reasons the Politburo hasn't been more forceful in providing assistance and relief efforts is that they are running out of financial assets. I mentioned earlier that almost half of the revenue from developers selling products goes to the CCP in the form of taxes and land sales. Land sales form a particularly large share of the county, city, and provincial party receipts. With the collapse in Real Estate there is a collapse in party revenues.

So, how do I think the CCP will end? Will it be with a bang like the Nazis or a whimper like the Soviet Union? I really don't know. Right now I'm leaning 25% bang and 75% whimper.

When will it be? Beats the hell out of me. I do think the CCP won't see out the decade.

WWG1WGA

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)

LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

430 posted on 08/21/2023 7:41:22 PM PDT by LonePalm (Commander and Chef)
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To: LonePalm

The cabal is the oldest and officially extinct religion. I notice people tune me out when I talk about who Cabal are.

They don't pull strings directly. They're master infiltrators and influences as other religions do.

Though this religion does it for the most evil objectives you can imagine from your worst nightmare.

Teaching of Jesus basic premise is love. In order to love thy neighbor and enemy.
Teaching of Babylonian Mystics basic premise is to "know thyself." In order to be more narcissistic, not less.
446 posted on 08/21/2023 8:12:52 PM PDT by Steve Van Doorn
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To: LonePalm

I like one. Still trying to find something for this list.


455 posted on 08/21/2023 8:43:41 PM PDT by CJ Wolf ( what is scarier than offensive words? Not being able to say them. )
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To: LonePalm
I do think the CCP won't see out the decade.

Do hope you're right. But what will fill the vacuum?

457 posted on 08/21/2023 8:43:58 PM PDT by MileHi ((Liberalism is an ideology of parasites, hypocrites, grievance mongers, victims, and control freaks.)
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To: LonePalm

Thank you for your insights LP.

In a way a lot of what you wrote sounds almost like the Democrat party, especially about how they will react.

🐷


471 posted on 08/21/2023 9:17:45 PM PDT by Porkchop
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