I think the main one they expect to stick is Interrupting a Federal Proceeding which is what most J6’s got tagged with. I agree Trump said go peacefully, but the main things they seem to have are Trump only called the National Guard out after things got way out of hand, not before to keep order. There’s lots of testimony that instead of trying to end it, he was calling people to taunt them over the phone about what was happening, giving the appearance he was reveling in it.
So in a nutshell he invited up to a million angry people to DC, with no security in place, then delayed calling the national guard while he made phone calls to gloat. I don’t know the exact wording of that law but it doesn’t sound like he was trying to keep things in order.
Didn’t Pelosi decline the offer for the NG ahead of the event? I’m quite sure they were offered.
As far as possibly calling people to ‘gloat’ - it’s still a ‘so what?’ as that isn’t criminal. He did not ‘call to action’ a riot or insurrection, yet said the opposite.
Trump offered Pelosi National Guard presence several days before the rally. She refused it.