You make good points.
My own measly $.02: I'm not sure attempted lockdowns would work a second time -- there was a significant amount of unrest from Day One of the first attempt -- but if FedGov did embark on that folly, I get the vibe that many of the red states will refuse outright to comply. If those red states refuse to comply, other states will likely follow suit. It would turn into a gigantic game of Whack-A-Mole that FedGov cannot win. No one can whack 330 million moles across such a wide expanse as we have. Not FedGov, not blue-state govts., not even the military.
They would, of course, try their damndest to propagandize the country with fear porn. But far, far more people are awake to things now than before, no matter what the Internet and MSM fear merchants claim.
The above is one reason why I remain hopeful that Pres. Trump will return at some point prior to the 2024 elections.