Russia Terminates the Black Sea Grain Deal
To summarize:
1. There is about 18 million metric tonnes of last years harvest in the silos. They will need roughly 700 ships to get that out.
2. The Ukrainian harvest, such as it will be, starts in about 45 days. This is likely the last significant harvest until several years after the war ends.
3a. There are a lot of countries in east African, the Middle East, and south Asia that are dependent on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. The bulk of that is milled in Turkey.
3b. Don't look for any significant problems in the US because of this. Do look for the price of flour outside North America to more than double. Do look for significant unrest/famine in the above locales because of this.
4. Look for the price of fertilizer worldwide to skyrocket. This will lead to a significant reduction in crop yields for those who need it and won't be able to afford it. Think, China, India, most of Africa, and Brazil.
5. You might consider looking into the stock of US and Canadian fertilizer makers. Texas Gulf Sulfur and NC Phosphate come immediately to mind. The operated two very large phosphate mines near where I grew up in eastern NC. NC Phosphate was a client of my dad's law firm and I worked for them one summer in college.
WWG1WGA
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)