Do you not realize the Russians can and are building new and refurbishing older ships in their territory inside the Black Sea littoral?
New Azov Sea fleet organization planned for Mariupol
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-creates-affiliate-black-sea-121001166.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-bolsters-azov-sea-flotilla-185700402.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Ukraine: Russia increases combat ready warships in Black Sea, adds 2 Kaliber carriers
They can move newly commissioned or transferred ships into the Black Sea through rivers and canals, recently saw an article about the logistics but cannot remember where
Plans to add these LHD’s in 2026/7
Fleet expansion began after Crimea was annexed
According to the Russian state weapons program designed until 2027, fourteen warships intended for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet were laid down at Crimean shipyards in 2016–2020, including Karakurt-class cruise missile corvettes, modular patrol ships, and perhaps most notably, two 40,000-ton Project 23900 helicopter-carrier amphibious assault ships (LHD). LHDs are unique in naval warfare because they have an unparalleled capability to carry out surprise, blitzkrieg amphibious missions as well as perform fleet command-and-control (C2) management—a capability Russia lacks in the Black Sea since the sinking of the fleet’s capital ship, Moskva, back in April. At the same time, they can operate beyond the reach of coastal artillery and even some missile systems. In the Black Sea or the Mediterranean, those capabilities can significantly change the regional balance of forces by giving Russia more military options than it has had until now. They will dramatically enhance Russia’s power projection capabilities and decrease the time window for amphibious operations from several days down to hours.
https://jamestown.org/program/an-arsenal-of-empire-russian-naval-construction-in-crimea-and-implications-for-black-sea-security/
I took a look at the Zaliv Shipyard and they have two RO/RO ships under construction. Two littoral ships are alongside with one in decent shape and the other covered in rust.
The plans for Mariupol are irrelevant now that it’s in missile range for Ukraine.