The Path to National Suicide: U.S. fertility rates have dropped over the last two centuries and show no sign of rising

Without unrestricted immigration, nations like the United States cannot survive unless women have about 2.1 children each (the .1 reflects women who do not have children). The bad news is that the U.S. is falling short in reproducing itself. Occasional exceptions such as the Baby Boom aside, U.S. fertility rates have dropped over the last two centuries and show no sign of rising to the 2.1 replacement level. We are currently at 1.6.

The baby shortfall has huge consequences beyond potentially filling the nation with immigrants. An aging population brings higher healthcare costs, budgets devoured by pensions, shrinking tax bases, labor shortages, empty schools and universities, and a stagnant economy.

Moreover, Africa aside, depopulation is worldwide and, apparently unfixable. Countries as diverse as Japan and Russia have tried the “obvious” solutions such as free childcare and subsidies, but to no avail. Scandinavian countries offer lavish child-friendly policies but likewise fail to move the needle. Between 2006 and 2021, South Korea spent $200 billion for maternity leave, paid childcare, and similar pro-natal measures, but the fertility rate dropped from 1.1 to .81.

This should be a major political issue regardless of one’s ideology. The Left surely needs a healthy economy to finance its welfare state while businesses depend on factory and service workers. Nobody wants a shrinking workforce whose principal responsibility is to fund a growing geriatric population.

Our fertility problems acknowledged, what is being done to encourage more children? Where are educators in this crisis who might help shape a pro-child culture? Schools and the media are certainly relevant. Recall the popular Dick and Jane elementary school reading books of the 1950s featuring an idyllic family or family-friendly TV-sitcoms from that era.

Amazingly, much of our education establishment is pushing youngsters away from family life

Why can't the USA survive with a dropping population?

Because so many of our foundational constructs from Federal debt financing, Social Security and Federal Reserve dollar creation are predicated upon a continually expanding economy, which requires a continually expanding population. They will collapse with decreasing population.

I think that western nations could acknowledge this and take steps to adapt but without a frank national debate it will never occur

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