Posted on 05/15/2023 7:39:44 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
You can take this with a grain of salt, but according to Niall Ferguson, a historian and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, there is a strong possibility that former Donald Trump will emerge the victor in the 2024 presidential election.
In an op-ed for The Spectator, Ferguson argued that “A second Trump act is not just possible. It’s fast becoming my base case.”
Ferguson quickly dismisses the idea that Trump’s legal issues will hurt him because criminal cases against leading political figures often do not hinder their political success. In fact, he observed that they’re already backfiring because of the perception that Democrats are abusing the legal system for political purposes.
As for the primaries, Ferguson notes that Republican candidates that have an early lead in the polls, as Trump does, typically end up the nominee. “Early frontrunners have won Republican primaries in six out of eight competitive races since 1972, when the modern system of primaries was introduced,” he notes. “The two exceptions were John McCain in 2008 and Trump himself in 2016.”
If Donald Trump maintains his current average polling numbers throughout the first half of 2023 but fails to become the Republican Party’s choice for the presidential nomination, he would become the highest-polling candidate ever to be unsuccessful in securing the nomination. So the odds are clearly in his favor.
As for the general election. Democrats assume that Trump can’t beat Biden — and that’s probably the only reason they’re tolerating nominating a vegetable for president — particularly in light of the results of the 2022 midterms. Of course, while Joe Biden likes to take credit for that, the abortion issue was a much more significant factor than Joe Biden.
But the big problem for Joe Biden is his popularity. His approval ratings have been underwater
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
I'll leave it for the rest of the posters to tell us what that unstated assumption is.
Probably not a good idea to count him out.
Yup—if you don’t know who the mark is in the crooked poker game—it is you.
Assuming an honest election.
Before a Trump victory appears likely, the US Deep State will go scorched-earth. There will be a massive false flag war event, false flag insurrection somewhere the USA, cities will be burned by their controlled mobs, media will commit suicide by a final insane flurry of lies, migrants will be given the right to vote and “organized” - something/anything to justify keeping Trump from office.
I am not at all optimistic about future peaceful transfers of power.
Nuclear war if needed.
Leftists will NEVER LET GO OF POWER ONCE THEY HAVE IT.
Currently they have it.
This situation is not one that can be set right with a fair election or two.
Fully metastasized across all systems they are.
They won’t have to go scorched earth. It used to be the cheat limit was 4-5%. In Az Lake had a 10-12% lead and they still stole it. The rat’s cheating is constantly evolving and in 24 they will not use the same methods.
not sure it even matters what the “vote count” says....it’s just what the media announces...and look, it looks like Trump lost! the media says so!
Provided the election is fair?
That is until Moochelle & Oprah decide to team up. And if they do, they will win. That's just how incredibly ignorant & stupid this country has become.
“But the big problem for Joe Biden is his popularity. His approval ratings have been underwater”
Sherlock??? Is that you???
Isn’t this is the clown who kicked off the Covid scare by saying 4% of the people could die, urged lockdowns, then got caught cheating on his wife during the lockdown?
Or is this a different Niall Ferguson?
An honest and legal election.
Not going to happen. Nothing has been done to change the conditions that caused the last election to be stolen.
You can’t even find the hockey stick vote count graphs anymore. Normal trends don’t just change like that all of a sudden without intervention. Trump was clearly winning and then all of a sudden he wasn’t. That is not a natural occurrence.
The last election was stolen and this next one will be as well. Count until you win is the demoncrap motto.
So long as the Commie Rats are permitted to cheat, polls are meaningless. Stop the wholesale cheating and Trump becomes the favorite. But no cheating is not a guarantee. The Swamp/ Deep State has their backs to the wall and the American public is at the gate with their torches and clubs. Trump is an existential threat to the Swamp. Trump could very well die from a “manicure” during this election. . . . (/ sarc)
not if the are fixed, which they are. I hope and pray I’m wrong, but I don’t think so
I can think of at least 70 MILLION cemetery residents who will VOTE and say otherwise.
Yes. It actually is a different Niall Ferguson.
Or rather, that was Neil Ferguson. The names may be pronounced the same way, I don't know.
RE Neill Ferguson - he resigned as an advisor to PM Boris Johnson for NOT social-distancing when he (Ferguson) thought he had natural immunity following a recovery from flu-like symptoms.
The pandemic proved a no-win proposition for many governments. Shut-down orders were criticized for being either too lenient or too tight by various people. Boris Johnson didn’t survive. But, neither did Donald Trump.
If Ferguson was a clown, what does this say about Trump’s team of advisors?
Regarding Ferguson being divorced, is this meant as a complement (Ferguson only has one divorce, relative to two for Trump), or a criticism?
Excuse me for becoming tired of winning, when “winning” means losing the Congress in the mid-term elections of 2018, and then losing the Presidency in 2020.
I’ll paraphrase something Trump said about John McCain: I prefer candidates who win.
Having said all the above, I agree with Ferguson: it’s looking as though Trump will win the Republican nomination and the general election next year. This isn’t based on emotionalism. I am neither Never-Trump nor a Trump-aholic. Yes, sure, things can change, but as of right now, a Trump victory is how things are adding up.
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