Pinging the this’n’that list; freepmail to get on/off it. Interesting from Intel Slava yesterday (first part) and today. The short version says to me, that Ukraine is willing to sacrficie countless lives to keep the war going and make the west which is sending stuff and $$$ on board, no matter the human lives lost. Also clear is that without the constant flow of $ and materiel to Ukraine, the war would be over. The blood is on the hands of Zelensky, Pedo Joe and all who support the war in Ukraine.
Of note, The Military Balance 2022 by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) states that the AFU Pre War composition was: - 196,000 Active Duty - 900,000 Reserve - 102,000 Paramilitary Let’s round that off and say 1.2 million, so the 300…
Back in January, we noted there was a large discrepancy between the Pre-War numbers of the AFU (1.2 million) and what Zaluzhnyi said he had in December, which was just 700,000. We now know where a large number of those missing guys are.
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Let’s talk about the enemy. Now the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is trying to maintain the combat stability of defensive lines with the minimum possible reserves. This means that the Kiev regime gives the front line exactly as much as is necessary so that the enemy does not start to back away. All other forces are being concentrated in order to form an offensive grouping, which will be used during the spring-summer campaign. According to various realistic estimates, the Armed Forces of Ukraine form at least two almost full-blooded corps. Why almost? Because the regime has no problems with the number of personnel, there are problems with its quality and weapons. It is unlikely that the enemy will be able to equip the entire offensive grouping with standard equipment. Western supplies will not cover the needs by 100 percent, since the enemy has serious losses at the forefront. But here’s what I noticed.
Now at the front end, the staffing of enemy formations and subunits is rarely below 85-90 percent. And where there is not enough full-time armored vehicles, the enemy uses pickup trucks, civilian transport and evacuation vehicles, and makeshift fire weapons. I think the situation in the strike force will not be much better.
What allows the enemy to form reserves? Disregard for their own losses. And this is not a propaganda stamp. Insensitivity to losses allows the Kyiv regime to buy time and maintain stability on the defensive. Conscious decision of the regime, not situational. Although at the same time the enemy can afford to send entire formations to restore combat readiness, that is, effective rotation at the forefront continues. And this suggests that the stake of the Kyiv regime on constant mobilization justifies itself. A good phrase was used by one of the commanders of the musicians: “human unlimited”. Very precise wording. And while maintaining rear logistics (the year of the war), this makes it possible to calmly deal with reserves.
In the end, what will we see in the coming months? We will see at least two counterattacks by fresh and relatively prepared forces, which, through their own defensive formations, will try to break through our fortifications and go as deep as possible deep into our territory, supporting the flanks. All modern Western weapons systems will be involved here: MLRS, aircraft, modern and not so modern tanks and reconnaissance equipment. I am sure that the enemy is holding a part of modern weapons precisely for organizing a counteroffensive.
The political goals of the Kyiv regime are already clear. Resounding success is needed. For the sake of this, the enemy will let his own infantry go to waste without any regret. Our failure in the Kharkov region gave the enemy confidence that they were quite capable of repeating this. It seems to me that the confidence of this enemy will lead to defeat, but there are many nuances. The main of which is our own stability in defense, the availability of ammunition, the organization of communications and the availability of reserves.