These days “science” is whatever they want it to be.
Ahead of today’s payrolls report, we warned that there is the possibility for a lot more “market whiplash” because as Goldman explicitly warned, there is the risk for an outlier strong report in January due to massive seasonal adjustments...
.... this would be all about seasonal adjustments and sure enough, that’s precisely what happened because while the unadjusted payrolls actually cratered by a record 2.505 million, the seasonal adjustment factor was more than 3 million, the biggest in history!
And while we joked yesterday that the ongoing mass layoffs would prompt the BLS to cut the unemployment rate to a record low if for purely political purposes...