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To: AZLiberty; goldbux

I think that chart is being mis-read.
The explanation:

The expectation of life at a specified age is the average number of years that members of a hypothetical group of people of the same age would continue to live if they were subject throughout the remainder of their lives to the same mortality rate.

https://www.infoplease.com/us/health-statistics/life-expectancy-age-1850-2011

so...
The the actuarial life expectancy for white males in the U.S. born from 1900 – 1902 who reach 70 years old will live another 9.03 years.


932 posted on 01/20/2023 8:31:24 PM PST by stylin19a (a principle to keep a person in everlasting ignorance ? - contempt prior to investigation)
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To: stylin19a; AZLiberty; Disestablishmentarian; Axenolith
AZLiberty: "Life expectancy is measured in years, not percentages."

stylin19a points out that I mis-read the chart.

Both of you are correct. I apologize for mis-reading it, despite the clear explanation at top. Disregard my earlier post.

-----

I was trying to determine how many persons who were age 21 in 1899 (born in 1878) might have survived another 50 years, to attain age 71 in 1949.

Actuarial chart: the relevant data is in row three. We can ignore the first two rows, since they were based on Massachusetts only.

By the turn of the century, 20-year-olds could expect to live about another 40 years. Persons born ~ 1878 likely had a shorter range. Some might have survived to 1949, but there's no way to derive how many.

Can't extrapolate from that chart the fraction of a group with a lifeline of 60 that might live another 18.3% to 71.

From that small pool of 71-year-old survivors, the probability that at least one vaxxed geezer who landed in the Rio Grande Valley – and somehow close to the eight smallpox victims – is the example verifying that the smallpox inoculation gave him "durable immunity" becomes vanishingly small, but I can't quantify it.

1,016 posted on 01/21/2023 7:51:26 AM PST by goldbux (“The whole world is a very narrow bridge. The main thing is to have no fear at all.” –– R. Nachman)
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