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Not to be nitpicky, but this has me a little confused. The last smallpox outbreak in the U.S. was in 1949. 8 people in the Rio Grande Valley became ill, and 1 of them died (according to an LA Times article).
Was there someone around them who didn't become ill, and who also had been vaccinated by 1899?
I'm pinging goldbux, as the question involves numbers.
According to this table online from [perhaps] credible sources, the actuarial life expectancy for white males in the U.S. from 1900 – 1902 was 9.03%.
For white females from 1900 – 1902 it was 9.59%.
https://www.infoplease.com/us/health-statistics/life-expectancy-age-1850-2011
That 9% number for men held steady (< 1% increase), and rose to a range of 10.07% – 11.35% from 1949 – 1981.
The corresponding data for women was better, rising to 14.89% by 1979 – 1981.
Assuming American westerners in 1899 were inclined not to vaccinate minors – those ≤ 21 years of age – then it reasonably implies that a statistically significant # [ ~ 9%] of adult citizens in that region – age ≥ 21 years old – were also vaccinated that year, and survived to at least age 71.
Can't determine what fraction of the 9% 1899ers may have been vaccinated.
Don't have the data – or time to research it now – on the smallpox vaccine[s] used then.
"Lies, damn, lies, statistics."
The one I’m recalling was in the low hundred range in New York iirc.