“I personally know 4 people personally who have developed myocarditis.”
I personally know of zero people personally who have developed myocarditis.
Assuming I know 200 people, if the odds are 1 in 13,000 that means the odds I know 1 person would be 1 in 65.. 2 would be 1 in 4,225, 3 is 1 in 274,625 and 4 would be 1 in 17,850,625
You think I’m that lucky?
All depends on how many people you know.
I showed me the odds of my experienced, you provided none for yours .
They have lied to you, you wish to believe them feel free
All depends on how many people you know.
I showed me the odds of my experienced, you provided none for yours .
They have lied to you, you wish to believe them feel free.
Let’s use the same math shall we..
I’d you know 200 people and they are honest about their rates of myocarditis
Then that would mean there is a 1 in 65 chance you would know someone with it.
That means 64 out of 65 people who know 200 poeple would not know anyone who got myocarditis.
Reality if the incident rates were as high as 1 in 400 before you would have a 50% odds of knowing someone who got it… so yes you aren’t lucky to know no one who has it.. odds are even at a rate way higher than their claimed rate you would still statistically more likely not to know someone who got it.
Published rate is 1 in 13,000.. rate could be as high as 1 in 400 and odds would still be in your favor that you know no one.
For me to know 4 as I showed, if they are being honest about their published incident rates, which they aren’t, would be 1 in 17,850,625.
So you aren’t lucky that you know no one, even if rates turn out to be more than 32 times higher than admitted to
Because you know three people and they wouldn't share anything with you anyway.