Unfortunately, regimes often only collapse after either 1. a total economic meltdown, or 2. a shameful defeat in a costly war.
Such events can trigger revolutions and regime change. But the price is high, the pain is great.
#1 is right around the bend. #2 - Afghanistan with ver. 2.0 building up in The Ukraine with massive amounts of money and equipment losses not to mention lives. It sure looks like your theory is being tested as we speak. Stay tuned!