“with a worldwide mortality rate of 0.0836 percent “
What gets left out of these discussions is what data was available to compare Covid-19 with at the beginning before its own mortality rate was known.
C-19 is a SARS virus and there is only one other known SARS outbreak, 2002-2003. That one had a mortality rate of 9%. The other similar virus was MERS in 2015, that one had a death rate of over 30%.
In light of those numbers the reaction of the medical field in early 2020 looks a whole lot less hysterical. They had no way to know what C-19 mortality rates would be. And the early reports coming out of Italy and China were far from encouraging.
Excellent points, Pelham. The case fatality rate was calculated as being much higher at the very outset of the outbreak as well:
*****
For example, the COVID-19 fatality rate for China (without correction for the upward bias inherent in looking at observed rates) was initially reported to be 5.6 percent (95% CI, 5.4–5.8).23 By February 20, 2020, however. the crude fatality rate for China was estimated to be 3.8 percent.24 The fatality rate outside China was estimated to be 15.2 percent (95% CI, 12.5–17.9),23 which may be due to the more considerable upward bias during the beginning part of the pandemic within a country. The same patterns occur in the United States, with observed rates being much higher during the initial part of the pandemic. A recent estimate of the CFR using individual-level data from Wuhan residents and from international Wuhan residents who repatriated on six flights found it to range from 0.66 percent to 1.4 percent.
https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00455
*****
Again, I don’t fault the initial reaction to the Covid outbreak. Based on the previous SARS outbreaks and initial CFR estimates, it appeared far more dire than it turned out to be. The lockdowns went on way too long, though, in my opinion.
China now experiencing “record numbers” of Covid cases. Why? I recall how they bragged their draconian lockdowns had “worked” and gleefully claimed they had come out better from Covid than the rest of the world, bwahahaha. It was obnoxious, but was it true? It is impossible to get anything approaching reliable statistics out of China. As for the current outbreak (if you can believe China):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63739617
I cannot stand Paul Krugman and disagree with much in this piece, but he does have a few points:
The bits where I think he may have a point:
“China’s leaders, however, seem to have believed that lockdowns could permanently stomp out the coronavirus, and they have been acting as if they still believe this even in the face of overwhelming contrary evidence.”
“At the same time, China utterly failed to develop a Plan B. Many older Chinese — the most vulnerable group — still aren’t fully vaccinated. China has also refused to accept foreign-made vaccines without unreasonable conditions that were rejected by the manufacturers, even though its homegrown vaccines, which don’t use mRNA technology, are less effective than the shots the rest of the world is getting.”
“Not only have many of the most vulnerable Chinese remained unvaccinated or received inferior shots, but because the coronavirus has been suppressed, few Chinese have natural immunity, and the nation also has very few intensive care beds, leaving it without the capacity to deal with a Covid surge.”
How The Economist tallies excess deaths worldwide:
Would you care to support your assertions with sources? I fidn them assertions wildly incorrect.