Reliable?? Barone predicted Mitt Romney to win more that 300 EVs against Obama in 2012.
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Considering what we know now, he probably did!
Romney and McCain were awful candidates—and the Republican base held their nose and voted for them.
More importantly, many union members who were sick and tired of Democrats (but had voted for them in the past) just saw no reason to switch for those two clowns.
It took a serious candidate that convinced them real change was possible that convinced union members in Ohio, PA, Michigan, WI etc to make the switch and vote Republican.
There were many counties in those states that had voted Democrat for years that did switch—but only when Donald Trump was on the ticket.