Iran Update, August 2, 2024
The following indicators would support the hypothesis that Iranian-backed militias are preparing to attack US forces in eastern Syria.
Iranian-backed militias massing additional forces in or around eastern Syria
Iranian-backed militias leaving their stations in western Iraq or other parts of Syria
Iranian or Iranian-backed militia leaders meeting in eastern Syria
Iranian-backed militias flying ISR drones around US forces in eastern Syria
Iranian-backed militias in eastern Syria conducting exercises simulating attacks on US forces
Iranian or Iranian-backed militia leaders in eastern Syria taking heightened security precautions
Iranian or Iranian-backed sources signaling publicly the possibility of intensified conflict in eastern Syria
Iranian-backed militias rapidly increasing the dissemination of anti-US disinformation in eastern Syria
CTP-ISW has not independently observed confirmation of any of these indicators, and many of them are unlikely to be observable in the open-source environment.
Anonymous Western intelligence sources told Sky News Arabia that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah may attack Israel on the Jewish holiday Tisha B’Av on August 12-13 in retaliation for Israel killing Ismail Haniyeh.[8] Tisha B’Av commemorates the destruction of the First and Second Temples and is widely considered a day of sadness and tragedy. An Iranian-Hezbollah attack on this date would come about 12-13 days after Israel killed Haniyeh on July 31. Iran similarly waited 13 days before retaliating against Israel in April 2024 for killing senior IRGC commander Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi.[9]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-2-2024
Iran Update, August 3, 2024
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) issued a statement on August 3 claiming that Israel killed Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran using a short-range projectile equipped with an explosive warhead.[1] The statement claimed that the projectile was fired from outside the guesthouse where Haniyeh was staying in northern Tehran. The IRGC also claimed that the projectile was equipped with a “seven-kilogram warhead.” The IRGC vowed to retaliate severely against Israel at the “appropriate time and place” for the killing of Haniyeh.
The statement follows an August 1 New York Times report that stated, citing seven anonymous Middle Eastern officials, that Israel killed Haniyeh by remotely detonating an explosive device covertly smuggled into the Tehran guesthouse months in advance.[2] The report stated that Haniyeh had stayed at that guesthouse multiple times previously. United Kingdom-based outlet the Telegraph similarly reported on August 2 that the Israeli Mossad hired Iranian security agents from the IRGC Ansar ol Mehdi Protection Corps to plant explosives in three separate rooms in the guesthouse.[3] The Telegraph also reported that Israel originally planned to detonate the explosives targeting Haniyeh during former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral in May 2024. The report stated that this original plan did not go ahead due to large crowds inside the building. The report stated that the agents then fled Iran and detonated the explosive devices from abroad. The IRGC is responsible for securing and maintaining the guesthouse.[4] The IRGC may have claimed that a projectile killed Haniyeh to deflect blame for allowing Mossad to infiltrate its security forces.
The New York Times reported on August 3 that Iran has arrested over twenty-four individuals, including senior intelligence officers, military officers, and staff at the guesthouse, in connection to the security failure that led to the killing of Haniyeh.[5] Israel has not claimed responsibility for killing Haniyeh at the time of this writing.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-3-2024