Recent Iranian polls show that moderate Masoud Pezeshkian is leading over ultraconservative hardliner Saeed Jalili in the Iranian presidential race.[1] The runoff election will occur on July 5. The Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) published a poll on July 4 showing that Pezeshkian has a 5.6 percent lead over Jalili.[2] ISPA notably predicted accurately that Pezeshkian and Jalili would win the highest and second highest number of votes, respectively, in the first round of voting on June 28.[3] ISPA also correctly predicted that pragmatic hardliner Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf would receive significantly less votes than Pezeshkian and Jalili.[4] The July 4 ISPA poll is consistent with CTP-ISW’s observation on July 1 that Pezeshkian appears to be gaining momentum ahead of the July 5 runoff election.[5]
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei must decide whether he will permit Pezeshkian to win the election if Pezeshkian wins the most votes. Khamenei recently expressed foreign and nuclear policy views on June 25 that closely align with Jalili’s views, suggesting that Khamenei endorses Jalili.[6] Khamenei furthermore indirectly criticized Pezeshkian’s campaign policies on the same date.[7] Khamenei’s opposition to some of Pezeshkian’s policies could lead him to directly intervene in the upcoming election and install Jalili as president.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-4-2024
Iran held the second round of its presidential election between ultraconservative hardliner candidate Saeed Jalili and moderate candidate Masoud Pezeshkian on July 5.[11] The Iranian Election Headquarters extended the voting deadline from 1800 to 0000 local time, likely to try to increase voter turnout.[12] This action is not unprecedented; the regime has previously extended voting hours during both presidential and parliamentary elections, including during the June 28 first-round presidential election.[13] The Interior Ministry will likely announce the final election results in the morning local time on July 6. CTP-ISW will publish an analysis of the results on July 6.
Iran is continuing to promote greater financial and monetary cooperation with Russia to try to undermine Western sanctions. Central Bank of Iran Governor Mohammad Reza Farzin traveled to St. Petersburg, Russia, on July 3 to attend a financial conference.[14] Farzin called on BRICS members to form a financial institution similar to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).[15] The FATF blacklisted Iran in February 2020 for failing to implement anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing policies.[16] Farzin also called on Russia, China, and Iran to use their national currencies—rather than the US dollar—in economic transactions.[17] Farzin invited Russia to join the Asian Clearing Union, which is a payment arrangement in which the central banks of member states “settle payments for intra-regional transactions...on a net multilateral basis.”[18] Iran, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka currently comprise the Asian Clearing Union. Belarus applied to join the Asian Clearing Union in May 2023.[19]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-5-2024