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Iran Update, May 20, 2024

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in northwestern Iran on May 19.[1] His death upends Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s multi-year project of grooming Raisi to become the next supreme leader. Khamenei has invested tremendous energy and time in preparing Raisi in recent years, appointing him to key positions and engineering the presidential election in 2021 to ensure that he won.[2] Raisi’s death is a shock to both the day-to-day management of the Iranian government as well as to Khamenei’s long-term vision for the regime.

There is no obvious top contender to become the next supreme leader since Raisi died. One of Khamenei’s sons, Mojtaba Khamenei, is widely considered a leading candidate. Mojtaba has significant influence in the regime, especially in the internal security apparatus. Though Mojtaba certainly could replace his father, it is premature to say that he is the most likely option. Khamenei and other powerful factions that have supported Raisi for years must now reconsider who they would like to become the next supreme leader. They will not necessarily support Mojtaba. A member of the Assembly of Experts stated in February 2024 that Khamenei opposes hereditary succession, in fact.[3]

The regime must fill several key positions in the coming days and weeks, which could provide insight into how Khamenei and other factions are considering succession since Raisi died. The Assembly of Experts, which is the regime body responsible for monitoring and selecting the supreme leader, is scheduled to elect its leadership board on May 21.[4] That board includes the chairman and deputy chairman, which are both currently vacant. Raisi was the previous deputy chairman. Parliament is similarly scheduled to elect a new speaker on May 27.[5] Iran will also hold a presidential election on June 28.[6]

Khamenei will need to decide whether to interfere in any of these elections’ outcomes to prepare for succession. Any prominent cleric in one of these positions would become a natural contender for supreme leadership even though there is no legal requirement for the supreme leader to hold such offices beforehand. Khamenei could, on the other hand, refrain from making an immediate decision on who he would like to succeed him.

An indicator that Khamenei is positioning an individual to succeed him would be Khamenei allowing a cleric to become the next president or parliament speaker. This indicator would be especially strong if that cleric is in their 60s or 70s. Khamenei would probably avoid supporting a cleric much older, given that they would have a higher risk of dying and triggering another succession crisis sooner.

Iranian Interim President Mohammad Mokhber appointed Ali Bagheri Kani as head of the administration's Foreign Relations Council, making Bagheri Kani the de-facto acting foreign affairs minister, on May 20.[7] Bagheri Kani replaces Hossein Amir Abdollahian, who died alongside Ebrahim Raisi in the helicopter crash in northwestern Iran on May 19.[8] Bagheri Kani will serve in his new position until the next Iranian president enters office. Bagheri Kani has held several key roles in the Iranian regime. He had been most recently the deputy foreign affairs minister for policy and lead negotiator in the nuclear talks since 2021.[9] Bagheri Kani also served as the deputy secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) from 2008 to 2013.[10] The SNSC is comprised of senior military and political officials and responsible for advising the supreme leader on foreign policy and national security.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-20-2024

Iran's Loss Is Turkey's Gain! Akinci UAV, That Located Ebrahim Raisi’s Chopper, Scores 2.5 Million Hits

The Turkish Akinci Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)—aggressively being pitched by Ankara for export—has shot to fame by participating in an unexpected mission. It is following the lead taken by the Turkish TB2 UAV, which demonstrated its lethal combat capability in the Azerbaijan-Armenia war in 2020.

he Turkish Ministry of National Defense announced on Platform X: “Based on the request made by the Iranian authorities through our Ministry of Foreign Affairs, an Akıncı UAV and a night vision Cougar type helicopter were assigned to participate in the search and rescue activities of the crashed helicopter of the President of Iran and his delegation.”

The UAV patrolled the skies of Iran for hours, scanning for potential evidence. In almost no time, the Akinci UAV became the most tracked aircraft in the world, with over 2.5 million people following its movement online and watching the live stream of the drone's operations. According to reports swirling on social media, the drone was at the job for more than seven hours.

The Turkish Bayraktar Akinci drone detected a source of heat early on the morning of May 20 that eventually led to the wreckage of the helicopter carrying the Iranian President. The coordinates of the location were immediately communicated to Iranian officials, and Iran finally found the wreckage.

Following the completion of its designated mission, the Akıncı delineated Turkey's national symbol—a star and crescent — during its flight path above Lake Van (as seen above).

Military watchers on social media believe that the drone has effectively come to represent Turkish pride and the might of the country's defense industrial sector. This was also visible in Turkish military bloggers posting comical memes on social media, glorifying their Akinci drone and mocking Iran.
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/irans-loss-is-turkeys-gain-akinci-uav-that-located/

Today Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani was selected as the new chairman of #Iran's Assembly of Experts. He is a spry 93 yo compared with his predecessor Ahmad Jannati who was 97. He has served as a member of the Expediency Council (including as its temporary head), a member of parliament (including as a deputy speaker), interim Friday Prayer Imam of Tehran, and was deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts.

Notably the first and second deputy chairman are Hashem Hosseini Bushehri and Alireza Arafi. That's another promotion for Arafi through the ranks—Guardian Council membership, leadership role in Assembly of Experts, and head of Iran's Seminaries. He is a candidate to watch as succession nears.

Lastly Abbas Kaabi and Mohsen Araki were named as secretaries of the board of directors. Araki is another candidate to watch as succession nears.

https://x.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1792866380158504972

Lucky for them, Raisi could not be elected.

Iran Update, May 21, 2024

The Iranian Assembly of Experts elected its leadership board on May 21, marking a new era for the body responsible for selecting the next supreme leader.[1] The Assembly of Experts is an Iranian regime entity constitutionally responsible for monitoring the supreme leader and selecting his successor. Assembly of Experts leadership board members serve two-year terms. This is the first time since 2016 that the Assembly of Experts has not been led by influential cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati.

This Assembly of Experts leadership board election is particularly significant given Khamenei’s old age and Raisi’s recent death. Khamenei is 84 years old and will be 92 by the time of the next Assembly of Experts election in 2032.[2] The 88 representatives elected to the Assembly of Experts in March 2024 will at least formally choose Khamenei’s successor if he dies or otherwise leaves his post before then.[3] Other powerbrokers within the regime—such as the IRGC—will undoubtably informally influence supreme leader succession as well. It is also possible, but not certain, that one of the newly chosen Assembly of Experts leaders could succeed Khamenei as supreme leader. All of the chairmen and secretaries hold the rank of Ayatollah—a prerequisite to become supreme leader—and all of them, besides Kermani, are in their 60s.

The Assembly of Experts elected the following individuals to leadership positions:

Chairman: Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Movahedi Kermani.[4] Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Kermani as an interim Tehran Friday prayer leader in December 2012.[5] Kermani also served as Khamenei’s representative to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) for 14 years between February 1992 and January 2006.[6] Kermani previously served as the second deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts until February 2023.[7] 55 out of 83 Assembly of Experts members voted for Kermani to become chairman.[8] Kermani is 93 years old.[9]

First Deputy Chairman: Ayatollah Hashem Hosseini Bushehri.[10] Bushehri is the Qom Friday prayer leader and the head of the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom.[11] The Assembly of Experts elected Bushehri to replace Kermani as the second deputy chairman in February 2023.[12] Bushehri’s tenure as second deputy chairman overlapped with former President Ebrahim Raisi’s tenure as first deputy chairman.[13] Bushehri is 68 years old.

Second Deputy Chairman: Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi.[14] Khamenei appointed Arafi as the director of all seminaries across Iran in 2016.[15] Khamenei later appointed Arafi as a member of the Guardian Council—a 12-member regime body responsible for supervising elections, vetting candidates, and approving legislation—in 2019.[16] Arafi has not previously held a leadership position in the Assembly of Experts. Arafi is 68 years old.

Secretary: Ayatollah Mohsen Araki.[17] Khamenei appointed Araki as a member of the Expediency Discernment Council in 2022.[18] He has served as a member of the Assembly of Experts since 1998.[19] The Assembly of Experts elected Araki as a cultural manager in February 2023.[20] Araki replaced Guardian Council member and Tehran interim Friday prayer leader Ahmad Khatami as one of the Assembly of Experts secretaries.[21] Araki is 68 years old.
Secretary: Ayatollah Abbas Kaabi.[22] Kaabi is continuing his role as a Secretary of the Assembly of Experts.[23] Kaabi is 62 years old

Two anonymous sources told Reuters on May 21 that the Assembly of Experts removed former President Ebrahim Raisi from the list of potential supreme leader successors in November 2023 due to his declining popularity.[24] There is reportedly a three-member committee in the Assembly of Experts that is responsible for preparing a list of potential candidates to succeed Khamenei.[25] Raisi was reportedly a member of this committee, so it is unclear how the Assembly of Experts could have removed his name from the list.[26] One of the sources told Reuters that clerics who supported Raisi lobbied “intensively” to have his name added back to the list.[27] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify these claims. It is notable that the sources told Reuters Raisi was no longer in the running to become supreme leader at a time when it is convenient for the Iranian regime to assure its people and those within the regime that Raisi’s death did not disrupt the supreme leader succession process.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-21-2024