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Iran Update, May 13, 2024

Iran is continuing to signal publicly that it could pursue a nuclear weapon. Strategic Foreign Relations Council Chairman Kamal Kharrazi stated during an annual Arab-Iranian dialogue conference on May 13 that Iran would need to change its nuclear doctrine if it faced threats from nuclear-armed countries.[7] This threat is particularly noteworthy given that Kharrazi is a senior adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Kharrazi similarly stated during an interview with al Jazeera on May 9 that Iran will have “no choice” but to change its nuclear doctrine if Israel threatened Iran existentially.[8] That Kharrazi made both comments to Arabic-speaking audiences suggests that he meant to signal to Arab states, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in particular. CTP-ISW has observed that Iranian officials have normalized public discussion about pursuing a nuclear weapon in recent months.[9]

Anti-Iranian regime outlet Iran International and an Israeli social media account published a joint investigation on May 13 detailing senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officer Mohammad Reza Zahedi’s last movements in Iran and Syria before Israel killed him in Damascus on April 1.[58] The article claimed that Zahedi flew on an IRGC-affiliated aircraft from Tehran to the Russian-controlled Hmeimim Military Airport in Latakia on April 1. Zahedi traveled later that day from Latakia to Damascus and arrived approximately fifteen minutes before Israel conducted the airstrike that killed him. CTP-ISW cannot corroborate or verify these claims. Hmeimim Military Airport is Russia's largest military base in Syria.[59] CTP-ISW previously reported that Iran and Russia are likely coordinating to transport Iranian materiel to Syria through Hmeimim Military Airport.[60]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-13-2024