Iran Update, April 7, 2024
nothing special
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-7-2024
Ali Beitollahi, Head of the Seismology and Vulnerability Section at the Center for Research of Roads and Urban Development, said that Iran's situation is exacerbated by the extensive nature of subsidence areas across many provinces, with the number of affected regions surpassing other countries with similarly high rates. In Kerman province alone, subsidence rates reach 40 centimeters annually.
Beitollahi attributed the increase in subsidence rates partly to “extensive well drilling practices, which have led to a decline in groundwater levels across the country.” Last year, reports surfaced suggesting that the Iranian government had intentionally concealed information about the worsening subsidence crisis.
Last month, experts in Iran warned the current land subsidence situation in Iran is “critical”, claiming it puts the lives of more than 39 million people at risk.
Ali Beitollahi said the approximate area of subsidence zones in the country is now 18.5 million hectares, almost 11% of Iran's total area, and says if action is not taken, it endangers the lives of nearly 49% of Iran's population. He said 380 and 9,200 villages are at risk of land subsidence.
Senior Iranian military officials have continued to suggest that they will carefully calibrate Iran's response to Israel's killing of senior IRGC commanders in Syria. This careful approach aims to avoid a direct war with Israel. Iranian Armed Forces Chief of the General Staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri said on April 6 that Iran will strike Israel “at the right time” during a commemoration ceremony for the IRGC officers killed in the likely Israeli airstrike on April 1[1] The Military Affairs Adviser to the Iranian Supreme Leader Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi separately said during a similar commemoration ceremony on April 7 that Iran “must wait for the right time” to deliver its response.[2] Several senior Iranian clerics close to the Office of the Supreme Leader endorsed “strategic patience”—a long-standing regime policy that involves not immediately conducting a major response to Israeli attacks—in their weekly sermons on April 5.[3] Such comments support CTP-ISW’s assessment that Iran seeks to avoid a direct military confrontation against the United States and Israel. Strategic patience does not exclude an eventual Iranian retaliation, however.[4]
Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on April 8 warned that Iran will retaliate for the April 1 Israeli airstrike, illustrating the possibility of an eventual response to the attack.[5] Nasrallah’s made these comments during a Hezbollah ceremony for IRGC commander Mohammed Reza Zahedi in Beirut. Nasrallah said that Iran has a ”natural right” to retaliate against the airstrike because it represented ”an attack on Iranian territory.”[6] Nasrallah added that the United States and Israel recognize that an Iranian response to the attack is ”inevitably coming.”[7] Zahedi spearheaded Iranian engagement with Hezbollah and most recently commanded the IRGC Quds Force unit responsible for overseeing operations in Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, and the Palestinian Territories.[8] Zahedi was the only non-Lebanese member of Hezbollah's Shura Council, which is led by Nasrallah and serves as the groups’ central decision-making authority.[9]
Arabic-language media outlet Jadeh Iran reported on April 7 and 8 that Iran has conditioned its potential response to the April 1 Israeli strike on a ceasefire in Gaza. Arabic-language outlet Jadeh Iran reported on April 7 and 8 that Iran informed the United States that it would not retaliate against Israel for the April 1 strike if the United States could secure a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas, citing “an anonymous Arab diplomatic source.”[10] Jadeh Iran is an outlet founded by an al Jazeera journalist. An Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry official told Kuwait-based newspaper Al Jarida on April 8 that the Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry told the United States that Iran would not respond to the April 1 Israeli airstrike if there was ”a ceasefire in Gaza.”[11] The US State Department spokesperson denied these reports on April 8.[12] The Jadeh Iran reporting coincides with claims from Western media and Israeli officials that Israel and Hamas negotiators had made ”significant progress” in negotiations or reached a “critical point“ during on going negotiations in Cairo.[13]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-8-2024