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Iran Update, March 25, 2024

Shin Bet announced on March 25 that the IDF seized a “significant amount of advanced arms from Iran” that Iran had smuggled into the West Bank to support Palestinian militia attacks targeting Israel.[1] The captured arms included 83 small arms, five anti-tank mines, four grenade launchers, 15 RPGs, and 25 kilograms of plastic explosives.[2] Shin Bet also said that a Fatah official based in Lebanon and affiliated with Lebanese Hezbollah and the IRGC assisted the Iranian effort to smuggle arms into the West Bank, but Shin Bet did not provide further details.[3] Shin Bet added that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force organized the effort to smuggle Iranian weapons into the West Bank, which is consistent with previous Western reporting.[4] The Wall Street Journal reported in October 2023 that Iran is smuggling weapons from Syria through Jordan into the West Bank, citing multiple Jordanian security officials.[5] Other unspecified regional officials told the Journal in October 2023 that the ”vast majority” of weapons going through Jordan ”appear[ed] destined for the West Bank.”[6]

IRGC Deputy Coordinator Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naghdi reiterated recent regime rhetoric that Israel must be prepared for greater Palestinian attacks against it.[53] Naghdi threatened Israel on March 25, stating that Israel has “prepared the ground for an incident” worse than the October 7 attack and exposed itself to this risk by intensifying its attacks on Palestinians. Naghdi also warned in the same statement that “the people of the region” may soon “hang American soldiers from electric poles in the streets of Baghdad and Manama.” This inflammatory rhetoric is typical for Naghdi and likely does not indicate any shift in Iranian policy or strategic calculus. Tehran Interim Friday Prayer Leader Mohammad Javad Haj Ali Akbari similarly said during Friday prayers on March 22 that Israel must be prepared for a “second, third, and fourth” October 7-style attack.[54] The Iranian supreme leader appoints Friday prayer leaders, but these clerics are not critical to regime decision-making.[55]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-25-2024

767 posted on 03/26/2024 5:15:52 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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Iran Update, March 26, 2024

Senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) officials have traveled to Iran likely to coordinate their ongoing efforts against Israel in the Gaza Strip and across the Middle East. Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh and PIJ Secretary General Ziyad al Nakhalah both arrived in Tehran on March 26.[1] Haniyeh met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian to discuss the war. Nakhalah spoke at a religious rally at Azadi Stadium in Tehran and will likely meet with senior Iranian officials thereafter.[2] The simultaneous visits of both Haniyeh and Nakhalah are noteworthy, as Iranian leaders have repeatedly emphasized the need for greater cohesion among Palestinian militias fighting Israel. Their visits are also noteworthy given that Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” will celebrate Quds Day—an annual anti-Israel holiday—on April 5 and will almost certainly use the occasion to broadcast the strength and unity of the Axis of Resistance.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei emphasized the importance of using information operations, especially in the context of the Israel-Hamas war, on March 26. Khamenei asserted that influencing the information space and using it against adversaries can be just as effective as military strength during a meeting with Iranian poets in Tehran.[3] Khamenei further stated that all “war is a media war” and that whichever actor has greater media influence will achieve their goals. Khamenei especially praised Palestinian militias’ media efforts in shaping public attitudes and narratives in the Muslim world during his meeting with Haniyeh.[4] Khamenei boasted that Palestinian militias’ media outlets have outperformed the Israeli media throughout the Israel-Hamas war. This emphasis on achieving informational effects to win wars is not entirely new; Khamenei has long stressed the need for Iran to fight a “soft war” against its adversaries. This soft war concept involves the use of information operations and psychological warfare to influence public perceptions.[5] Khamenei’s recent statements are, nevertheless, significant, as they are consistent CTP-ISW’s assessment that the Iranian regime is trying to exploit the Israel-Hamas war to try to isolate Israel in the Middle East.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-march-26-2024

768 posted on 03/28/2024 3:11:57 AM PDT by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
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