The Pakistani armed forces conducted cross-border attacks targeting Baloch separatists in three locations near Saravan, Iran, on January 17.[1] Pakistan announced that it fired a combination of drones, rockets, and air-launched standoff munitions to target Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Baluchistan Liberation Front (BLF) sites in Iran.[2] The BLA and BLF are Baloch ethno-separatist groups that maintain ongoing insurgencies inside Pakistan. Pakistan framed the strikes as responses to Iran's failure to prevent Baloch separatist groups based in Iran from conducting attacks inside Pakistan.[3] Pakistani media reported that the strikes killed and/or injured seven BLF fighters.[4] Pakistani Foreign Affairs Ministry officials emphasized that the strikes did not target the Iranian regime. The Pakistani strikes follow the IRGC’s drone and missile strikes on two Jaish al Adl headquarters in Koh Sabz, Baluchistan Province, Pakistan on January 16.[5]
The Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry summoned the Pakistani Charge d’affaires and condemned the Pakistani strikes but added that Iran will not allow unspecified “enemies” to strain the “good and brotherly” relations between Iran and Pakistan.[6] Media outlets tied to the Iranian armed forces highlighted that the Pakistani strikes did not target the Iranian state, referencing the statement from the Pakistani Foreign Affairs Ministry. The outlets also emphasized that Pakistan respects Iran's territorial integrity.[7] Several national and provincial Iranian security officials reported that there were 10 to 12 civilian causalities from the strikes but added that those individuals were not Iranian nationals.[8]
The Jordanian Royal Air Force conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian-linked drug smuggling operations in southern Syria on January 17.[79] The strikes targeted two sites in Suwayda Province—one warehouse and two houses.[80]
Iranian Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan traveled to China to increase security and law enforcement cooperation.[81] Radan met with Chinese Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong and Chen Wenqing, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) Politburo who oversees intelligence, law enforcement, and legal affairs.[82] Radan discussed strengthening cooperation to combat cybercrimes, drug trafficking, organized crime, and terrorism.[83] Chinese state media reported that Radan and Wang side a memorandum of understanding to strengthen law enforcement cooperation.[84] Radan commented that he hopes the agreement will facilitate Sino-Iranian cooperation to combat terrorism.[85] Wang additionally proposed the formation of a trilateral security institution between China, Iran, and Pakistan to combat terrorism.[86]
Radan’s visit could be part of the Iranian effort to build an increasingly adaptive and sophisticated police and surveillance state.[87] Iranian leaders have tried to replicate the success that the CCP has had imposing social control over its respective population.[88] Iranian leaders have, in particular, embraced emerging technologies, such as advanced algorithms, artificial intelligence, and facial recognition, to this end.[89] Radan traveled to Moscow in June 2023 for similar discussions on increasing Iranian law enforcement and security cooperation with Russia.[90]
full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-18-2024
Iranian officials stated on January 19 that the January 15 IRGC missile strikes in Idlib Province, Syria, were meant to signal Iran's ability to attack Israel directly. Armed Forces General Staff-affiliated media said that IRGC missile strikes in Idlib targeted the Islamic State (IS), “Jabhat al Nusra,” and the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP).[14] Jabhat al Nusra rebranded as Hayat Tahrir al Sham in 2017.[15] Tehran Interim Friday Prayer Leader Kazem Sedighi said during his sermon on January 19 that the IRGC launched the missiles from Khuzestan Province in southwestern Iran—rather than Kermanshah Province in western Iran—to demonstrate that IRGC missiles can reach Israeli territory.[16] Western media noted on January 17 that the range at which the IRGC fired the Kheibar Shekan missile toward Idlib is nearly the range required for Iran to target Tel Aviv, Israel.[17] Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned on January 19 that the IRGC will “change the angle” of its missiles to target Israel if Israel “makes a mistake.”[18] Ghalibaf was implying that Iran has the capability to strike Israel directly but has thus far chosen not to.
full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-19-2024