Iran has increased its production rate of highly enriched uranium (HEU). The United States and the E3 (France, Germany, Italy) confirmed in a joint statement on December 28 that Iran has increased its enrichment rate of 60 percent purity uranium.[1] Iran has been stockpiling 60 percent HEU since April 2021.[2] Iran decreased its enrichment rate and HEU stockpile after it reached an informal nuclear agreement with the United States in August 2023.[3] Western media reported that the United States refroze Iranian financial assets released as part of the agreement in October.[4] Iran's current stockpile of 60 percent HEU stands at 128.3 kilograms as of October 28.[5]
This development is consistent with CTP-ISW’s long-standing assessment that Iran has developed a nuclear program that it intends to use to produce a nuclear arsenal.[6] The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) defines 25 kilograms of 20 percent or more enriched HEU as a “significant quantity” for “which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded.”[7] Iran has stockpiled at least five bombs worth of HEU, given Iran's current stockpile of 128.3 kilograms of 60 percent HEU. Iran previously planned to serially produce nuclear warheads for ballistic and cruise missiles as part of its pre-2003 nuclear weapons program[8] The stockpiling of HEU is one of the key steps Iran would have to pursue to develop an arsenal and has previously conducted work on the other key steps in weaponization and delivery vehicles.[9] The Iranian enrichment infrastructure is also designed for a speedy mass production of HEU and/or weapons-grade uranium for multiple nuclear weapons.[10]
Iran has no use for 60 percent HEU other than for use in a compact nuclear explosive or to further enrich it to 90 percent weapons-grade uranium. Sixty percent HEU can only be used for nuclear weapons and does not have an alternate civilian purpose. The required enriched uranium purity for energy purposes [in a ligtht water reactor, as Iran has (mý correction)] is between 3 to 5 percent, and medical research reactors use 20 percent HEU.[11] Iran is now capable of producing weapons-grade uranium at a much faster rate than it would be if it only had a stockpile of lower than 60 percent enriched uranium.
The US Treasury Department sanctioned a Turkish and Yemeni financial network that enabled the IRGC Quds Force to fund the Houthis.[77] The US sanctions targeted one Yemeni, one Turkish entity, two Yemeni entities, and one Turkish entity responsible for facilitating financial flows between the IRGC Quds Forces and the Houthi movement. The Treasury Department said that Iranian funding enables Houthi attacks against international shipping in the Red Sea. The sanctions targeted Turkey-based Al Aman Kargo Ithalat Ihracat Ve Nakliyat Limited Sirketi (Al Aman), which Treasury said served as ”a waypoint for money sent by” Iran to Houthi businesses in Yemen. The sanctions also targeted two Yemeni money exchanges tied to the Houthis and one Yemeni national, the president of the Yemeni Currency Exchangers Association in Houthi-controlled Sanaa, Yemen.[78]
full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-29-2023
Iran Update, December 30, 2023
The Houthi military spokesperson warned the United States against “escalating” with the Houthis and rallying other nations to protect Israeli shipping on December 29. Brigadier General Yahya Sarea emphasized the Houthis’ defensive readiness and commitment to the Palestinian cause, which is consistent with prior Houthi rhetoric.[108] The Houthis have conducted an anti-shipping attack campaign around the Red Sea in recent weeks to disrupt commercial shipping to Israel and demonstrate both the willingness and capability of the Axis of Resistance to disrupt maritime traffic around strategic maritime chokepoints.[109] The United States announced Operation Prosperity Guardian on December 18 to counter Houthi attacks on international shipping.[110]
full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-30-2023