LH [Lebanese Hezbollah] appears to be preparing for an escalation with Israel ahead of Nasrallah’s planned speech. [Friday 3 pm local time = 9 am ET] Iran and LH have been creating the expectation in the information environment that Nasrallah will announce some kind of escalation, which could include Hezbollah increasing its rate of attacks or using more advanced military systems against Israel. LH previously warned that it would get involved in the war if Israel conducts ground operations into the Gaza Strip.[30]
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Esmail Ghaani traveled to Beirut on November 1 to coordinate the next stage of the Israel-Hamas War with LH.[31] Ghaani also traveled to Beirut on October 20 to coordinate with LH and Palestinian militia leaders in a joint operation center there.[32] Ghaani previously visited Syria to direct Iranian-affiliated militias to prepare to open a second front against Israel on October 15.[33]
Palestinian militias messaged their support for and anticipation of LH’s involvement in the war. Unspecified Hamas sources informed the London-based al Quds al Arabi outlet that Hamas expects Nasrallah to announce LH’s participation in the war.[34] The sources said Hamas also wants LH to allow Palestinian groups within Lebanon to fight Israel, as LH controls the border. Hamas has previously messaged that LH is working at all military and political levels in the war.[35] The al Quds Brigades separately released a statement on November 2 praising LH’s combat abilities.[36]
US officials told the Wall Street Journal that US intelligence indicates that the Russian Wagner private military company plans to give LH Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense missile systems.[37] Russia and Iran have increased their military-technical ties over the past year. Iran has provided Russia with Shahed-136/131 drones and domestic Shahed production capabilities, and Russia reportedly provided Iran with advanced surveillance software and cyber weapons and promised Iran Su-35 aircraft.[38]
Full report https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-2-2023
Iran Update, November 3, 2023
Iranian state media widely covered Nasrallah’s speech on November 3.
State-controlled outlets primarily focused on Nasrallah’s threats to US assets and forces in the region, warnings about the expansion of the war to new fronts, and claims that the Al Aqsa Flood Operation was “100 percent” a Palestinian initiative.[38] The Iranian regime, like Nasrallah, has in recent weeks accused the United States of being directly involved in the war.[39] The regime has additionally set informational conditions to blame the United States and Israel for any further escalation of the war, as CTP-ISW previously reported.[40]
IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency framed Nasrallah’s speech as marking the opening of a new front against Israel that can “inflict a final blow on the Israeli military and government.”[41] This framing differed from other Iranian media coverage of Nasrallah’s speech in that it framed the speech itself as an escalation, rather than as a warning of future escalation. Fars notably published this statement approximately 10 minutes after the conclusion of Nasrallah’s speech.
Iranian officials and media emphasized Israel’s “fear” of Nasrallah and LH on November 3. Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Friday Prayer Leader Mohammad Ali al Hashim stated that Nasrallah “terrifies” Israel, which he described as a “victory.”[42] Al Hashim added that Israel’s “fear” of Nasrallah underscores the “high importance of Nasrallah in equations in West Asia and even in the world.” Iranian media separately recirculated Israeli reporting that LH is waging a “psychological war” against Israel and that the IDF had been in “full alert” and “on standby” ahead of Nasrallah’s speech.[43]
Iranian media highlighted Iranians’ support for Nasrallah. Raisi administration-affiliated IRNA reported that “thousands” of Iranians gathered in Tehran on November 3 to support Palestinians and watch Nasrallah’s speech.[44] Fars similarly reported that university students gathered near the former US Embassy in Tehran to watch Nasrallah’s speech.[45] Various state-controlled outlets livestreamed Nasrallah’s speech on November 3.
full report https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-3-2023
Sam Heller: My (belated) takeaways from Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s speech Friday, which I think mostly elaborated on what we’ve understood to be Hizb’s posture and calculus since October 7. 1/8
...
And to his own constituents, for expectations-setting: Nasrallah reminds them that they don’t win through any single decisive victory, but rather in small incremental gains, and through their resilience, patience, and ability to endure. 8/8
thread
https://twitter.com/AbuJamajem/status/1721057530506248319
i.e. almost nothing