IRGC personnel backfilled a formerly Wagner-held position in Sukhnah in central Syria on September 28, supporting Iranian efforts to establish a permanent presence in Syria.
Lebanese Hezbollah-controlled outlet Al Manar published a video mapping US military positions in Syria.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev implicitly threatened on September 25 to forcefully take control of some of Armenia's southern territory, which would violate Iran's stated red line of preserving Armenia's territorial integrity. Aliyev made the threat during a visit to Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave. Aliyev during the visit met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and used additional irredentist rhetoric, describing Armenia's southern Syunik province as rightfully belonging to Azerbaijan.[8] Controlling Syunik province would fulfill Aliyev’s desire to connect Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan proper directly. Tigran Balayan—the Armenian envoy to the EU—warned on October 2 that an Azerbaijani attack into Armenia “is imminent.”[9] Iranian leaders have repeatedly expressed opposition to Azerbaijani expansion into Armenia, arguing that doing so would block Iranian land access to Russia and Europe.[10] Tehran has also expressed concern that such expansion could facilitate the spread of Turkish influence in the Caucasus.[11]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-4-2023
https://twitter.com/USEnvoyIran/status/1709632520847835211
video https://twitter.com/Golrizphoto66/status/1709861944684163277
1. Turkey has conducted a series of airstrikes in northern Syria against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—the United States’ sole security partner in the country—since October 5. These attacks are placing significant pressure on the SDF, which, in turn, puts at risk the US mission to defeat ISIS. The US relies heavily on the SDF to conduct and facilitate counter-ISIS operations in Syria.[2] The SDF is already under significant strain in eastern Syria, where a tribal insurgency erupted in August 2023 and has motivated the SDF to commit resources toward fighting.[3] The Turkish airstrikes could create space for the tribal insurgency to expand and for ISIS to consolidate its position in SDF-held territory, given that the SDF faces bandwidth constraints. CTP continues to assess that ISIS aims to reimpose its control over territory in Syria and has the capability to do so, should the opportunity arise.[4]
2. Iran has demanded that the Iraqi central government extradite members of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups to Iran, according to independent Iraqi outlet Al Mada. Such a demand would appear to violate international law. States cannot send refugees to territories where their “life or freedom would be threatened on account of [their] race, religion, nationality, or membership of a particular social group or political opinion,” according to the 1967 Protocol of the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees.[22] The UN High Commissioner for Refugees defined a “refugee” as an individual who has “a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political, is outside the country of [their] nationality, and... unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it.”[23] Iraqi government extradition of Kurdish Iranian opposition groups would also appear to violate the international legal principle of non-refoulment. Non-refoulment guarantees that migrants irrespective of migrant status should not be returned to a country of origin where they would come under “torture, cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment and other irreparable harm.”[24]
Read more: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-6-2023
Syria and Iran are cooperating with Russia. Since Russia has problems in Ukraine, Iran has ordered Hamas to attack Israel.
Hezbollah is next.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/10/07/Hezbollah-Hamas-operation-is-message-to-those-seeking-normalization-with-Israel-
