Iran Update, June 30, 2023
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC QF) and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) established a headquarters in eastern Syria, probably to coordinate arms transfers, intelligence collection, and training for Iranian-backed militants in Syria.
The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces conducted air strikes on rebel groups in Idlib Province shortly after the failure of the latest normalization and Astana Talks, and Iran may send Iranian-backed militants to in northwestern Syria to support the pro-regime operations.
Iran’s worsening water crisis is increasing food insecurity and internal migration, which will likely fuel greater popular unrest in the coming years.
The drying up of wetlands and rivers will limit Iranians’ access to clean drinking water and decrease food production, which will in turn harm many Iranians’ livelihoods. Esfahan Province residents—including many farmers—previously protested the drying up of the Zayandeh Roud River in November 2021.[30] Increased internal migration will additionally place an immense burden on large cities such as Tehran and change Iran’s social landscape. Large parts of Tehran experienced water cuts for several days in mid-June, which suggests that large cities sometimes have difficulty providing basic services to their citizens.[31] Increased internal migration would further strain cities’ capacities to meet citizens’ needs. Internal migration has historically caused unrest, moreover. Many protesters who participated in the December 2017-January 2018 Dey Protests had emigrated to the outskirts and suburbs of Iranian cities after facing economic hardships in their hometowns, for example.[32] Water scarcity is an issue that impacts all Iranians. This issue therefore poses a graver risk to the regime because, unlike previous protest movements which were largely limited to certain parts of the population, water protests could encompass numerous demographics.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-30-2023
Iran Update, July 5, 2023
Palestinian militants thanked Iran and the broader Axis of Resistance for their help during the recent Israel Defense Forces (IDF) raid in Jenin and likely will receive Iranian assistance to rebuild the military capabilities the IDF degraded.
Iranian officials inflated the amount of Iranian funds that a recent US sanctions waiver for Iraq will provide, possibly to inspire confidence in Iran’s economy and currency. News of similar waivers for Iraq has coincided with short-term improvements for the Iranian economy.
Iran became a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on July 4, which may enable it to circumvent sanctions through non-US dollar financial transactions with other SCO countries. Iran could benefit militarily from its membership in the SCO through participation in counterterrorism and naval exercises.
Iran attempted to seize two US oil tankers in the Strait on July 5, likely to assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz given the recent US naval deployments to the Persian Gulf. Iran also likely sought to pressure the US to accede to Iran’s demands in the nuclear negotiations.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-5-2023