Iranian leaders are preparing to resume their campaign to expel US forces from the Middle East by attacking and killing US service members after pausing this campaign in mid-2021. Iran will need to meet several operational conditions to conduct an attack on US forces in Iraq and Syria.
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Details: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-6-2023
Re: 413 - Bump
Thread:
1 Iran's former foreign minister @JZarif in a Clubhouse meeting: The @NIACouncil did not receive even a single penny from Iran. There were groups who were paid, but NIAC was not one of them. My cooperation with NIAC was limited to exchange of information.
2 Zarif: Hossein Taeb (then chief of IRGC Intelligence) was always trying to link me to NIAC, and radical figures in both sides tried to make the same allegations because @NIACouncil held critical stances on the situation of human rights in Iran.
3 Zarif: In nuclear talks, we used to send (the transcripts of) all negotiations and proceedings to Khamenei. Sometimes he'd give comments, and sometimes not. In some cases, he expressed his opposition, and sometimes, we told him we were unable to achieve a certain objective.
4 Zarif: The Muscat negotiation (with the US held during Ahmadinejad's presidency) was a taboo-breaking move which was made by my dear brother Dr. Ali Akbar Salehi (Ahmadinejad's foreign minister) despite Saeid Jalili’s stonewalling and Ahmadinejad's objection.
5 Zarif: You could see a range of issues - from piracy to Bahrain and Syria - in the agenda of Jalili’s negotiations, while we weren't allowed to discuss anything other than nuclear issue. In nuclear talks, they were trying to convince the West, hence the reason for their failure.
6 Zarif: Had Israel been really worried about Iran getting a nuke weapon, it should have supported JCPOA but it prevented (the regime from) acquiring a nuke. But their project was to make it an issue of security. So Ahmadinejad's threat to move toward a nuke served Israel's favor.
7 Zarif: @DeputySecState claimed that @JZarif didn't know the difference between “lift” and “suspend” (on sanctions). Ask her which one of us has more experience at the UN and its language? Not one of those P5+1 ministers knew the UN's language as much as Lavrov and I did.
8 Zarif: Those who claim the use of the word “suspend” for the lifting of anti-Iran sanctions in JCPOA’s text helped Donald Trump reinstate the sanctions are lying. They claim
@JZarif was asleep or hadn't read the JCPOA, but Trump also left Paris Agreement. Was the EU asleep too?
9 Zarif: Those who claim @JZarif must have obtained guarantees from the US know nothing about international agreements. I know many of our friends are in love with Trump and would have loved to see him winning the election, but please stop glorifying his moves against Iran.
10 Zarif: The word “suspension (of sanctions)” was added to the JCPOA’s annexes, not the main text, in the last minute, with the consent of my deputies and without my knowledge. I admit that. But it had no impact on the removal of anti-Iran sanctions.
11 Zarif: The anti-Israel slogan written on the missile (fired by the IRGC) helped the other side make the issue of Iran (and its nuclear program) an issue of security.
12 Zarif: The Saudis didn't want JCPOA to be finalized. Months before the deal (in Nov.) they promised the US to lower the oil prices so much so that Iran would give in to other side's demands. But the final deal was not much different from what we agreed upon before Saudis’ move.
13 Zarif: Jan. 16, 2016, the JCPOA implementation Day, was a day of mourning in Saudi Arabia. They were isolated in the world, long before Khashoggi’s killing. At the peak of their isolation after their executions, the attack on their embassy in Iran helped Saudis play innocent.
14 Zarif at the Clubhouse meeting: I strongly welcome restoration of ties with Saudi Arabia, but we should move forward with open eyes.
15: Zarif: In April 2019, I was the one who asked Rouhani to threaten JCPOA parties to leave NPT should they fail to implement their commitments. He accepted my suggestion which was a “chicken game” but SNSC didn't find it “rational” & expressed surprise I'd become “revolutionary”!
16: Zarif: John Kerry and I knew the JCPOA could not remain alive if it didn't have any economic benefits for the US. That was why we agreed that Obama issue an executive order allowing Iran to purchase civilian airplanes from Boeing and Airbus based on humanitarian reasons.
17 Zarif: Another great initiative by Kerry was to allow foreign branches of US companies to invest in Iran. That'd have guaranteed the US’ economic benefits from the JCPOA. However, Iran only accepted $13 billion worth of investment offers out of $85 bln worth of applications.
18 Zarif: Khamenei was not opposed to American investments in Iran, but was opposed to being dependent on American investors for basic commodities. Had Iran accepted all investment applications, Trump would have a $85-billion problem for leaving the JCPOA.
19 Zarif: Some American companies also failed to invest in Iran because of the influence of Jewish and Saudi/Emirati businesspeople. Emiratis told those companies ‘you must choose either the UAE or Iran’ for investment.
20 Zarif: In nuclear negotiations, the Europeans had become even stricter than the US, and insisted that Tehran must destroy all its centrifuges. However, we didn't accept their request.
21 Zarif: Some of the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration had nothing to do with the JCPOA. The sanctions against the Supreme Leader and his office which also included me were among them. While I was sanctioned due to affiliation with SL, I'm being attacked by hardliners.
22 Zarif: Trump's Foreign Secretary Tillerson mostly talked about ethical issues rather than JCPOA during our meetings. Later @mikepompeo was the one who ruined everything based on “ideological” views. He didn't believe in negotiation despite Trump who was in favor of meeting me.
23 Zarif: From the very first day in office, Tillerson realized that he was not in the same boat as Trump and his admin. He just remained in office as long as the tax problem with his ExxonMobil shares was resolved. He didn't have anything to say during the Joint Commission talks.
24 Zarif: When Macron came to visit me in Paris, he told me that Trump was ready to accompany him in the meeting with Iran's foreign minister, but I wasn't allowed to meet him. Trump also invited me to visit him at the Oval Office thru a senator close to him.
25 Zarif: Whenever the Islamic Republic's opposition comes to the conclusion that people are detached from the regime, they'd definitely downplay our power. We must accept that people are our patrons and must value their vote and support which gives us power to negotiate.
26 Zarif: Iran's authorities must know they can't stand against the US economic and military power. But Iran can exert political pressure on Europe. Europeans had poor economic performance due to their ties with the US, but in politics, they helped us get leadership positions at UN.
27 Zarif: Trump had no problem with my plan presented to Macron in Biarritz, but @mikepompeo and @AmbJohnBolton were against it. I asked Putin to convey the plan to Trump personally, so that Pompeo wouldn't be involved. Trump agreed, but Pompeo found out in another way & blocked it.
28 Zarif: Jared Kushner and Steven Mnuchin were the two figures who were in favor of talks with Iran. Bolton, however, was on the MEK Organization's payroll, and under the influence of their lies against the Islamic Republic, played a key role in convincing Trump to leave JCPOA.
29 Zarif: There's no chance for achieving a deal better than the JCPOA. If the 2015 deal dies, no deal can meet the demands of the Western side. Someone said about me that ‘Zarif can even sell ice to the Eskimo’. I believe you can't sell ice to the Eskimo twice.
30 Zarif on why American Iranian businessman Siamak Namazi wasn't released during the Rouhani’s tenure: You should ask those who are detaining him. I did my best to secure his release.
31 Zarif: The (IRGC’s) shoot-down of the Ukrainian airliner in January 2020 was an unforgivable sin.
https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1666214659962052611
There will be many comments on this in the coming days.
Iran Update, June 7, 2023
Iranian and Russian military officials met to discuss expelling the United States from Syria, which may indicate Russia’s intent to help facilitate Iranian-backed attacks against US forces.
Iran’s Parliamentary Internal Affairs Committee has proposed amending the parliamentary election law, which will likely empower hardliners to retain power in the March 2024 parliamentary election. The proposed election law amendments could decrease public faith in Iran’s electoral process and reduce voter participation in the March 2024 parliamentary election.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-7-2023