Iran Update, May 30, 2023
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes on at least two joint Syrian Arab Army-Lebanese Hezbollah positions in southwestern Syria on May 28, which is unlikely to prompt an Iranian-directed attack on US forces in Syria.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is preparing to launch artillery into Iraqi Kurdistan, likely as part of a short-term military conflict against perceived Israeli threats from the Iraqi Kurdistan Region.
Iranian and Afghan border guards engaged in a brief and lethal clash near the Malik-Zaranj border crossing on May 27, which Iran is unlikely to escalate to a larger armed conflict.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-30-2023
Iran has bolstered its defensive position in eastern Syria since the end of the escalation cycle that occurred in March, likely to facilitate the transfer of advanced conventional weapons into Syria. The escalation cycle between Iran, Israel and the United States may have prompted Iran to halt transferring advanced conventional weapons through Deir ez Zor.
The Raisi administration is reconfiguring personnel to economically benefit from Iranian and Syrian reintegration into the region.
Iran is likely attempting to coerce Iraq into complying with Iranian security concerns about Israeli activities in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Iran and the Taliban are signaling they seek to avoid further border clashes over water disputes while preparing for further border clashes.
The Iranian Parliament approved Reza Morad Sahraei as Iran's new education minister on May 30, which could lead to intensified government indoctrination efforts and crackdowns on university student protests.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-31-2023