Iran Update, May 16, 2023
Iran is taking steps to improve operational security for convoys traveling into Syria from Iraq, likely to protect arms transfers from Israeli airstrikes. Iran also is stoking conflict between Israel and Palestinian militias, likely to enable the IRGC to transfer military equipment into Syria with less risk of Israeli interdiction.
Iranian-Russian defense and economic cooperation is part of a broader and evolving Iranian-Russian entente. Both sides are engaging one another in several different fields, highlighting the potential for this partnership to deepen and expand further. Artesh Navy Commander Admiral Shahram Irani, for instance, met Russian Navy Commander Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov in Tehran on May 15.[14] Irani emphasized that the West is trying to prevent cooperation between Iran, China, and Russia and praised previous joint naval exercises between these countries. Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji separately discussed expanding cooperation in the oil and gas sectors with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak at the Oil Industry Research Institute in Tehran on May 16.[15] Iranian Supreme Court head Ahmad Mortazavi Moghadam additionally discussed judicial cooperation and Iran’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) with his Russian counterpart Vyacheslav Lebedev in Moscow on May 16.[16]
Russia is pursuing mutually beneficial economic and military programs with Iran, very likely to ensure Iran continues to provide material support for Russian operations in Ukraine. Iran’s acquisition of Russian Su-35s through those deals may enable Tehran to more readily and independently project power in the coming years.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-16-2023
Iran Update, May 17, 2023
Iranian-backed Iraqi militias threatened to attack US forces in Iraq, likely elevating the risk of an attack on US or Coalition forces. The militias do not always follow through with their threats to attack US forces, however.
Iran is establishing a military base in southern Damascus, likely accelerating efforts to secure its long-term presence in Syria ahead of Arab-Syrian normalization.
Iran has reinvigorated efforts to complete a rail line that connects India to Russia through Iran but is unlikely to complete this project within the next four years.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-17-2023